Staff research, Publications
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Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?
Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation. -
Degree of Internationalization and Performance: An Analysis of Canadian Banks
The international business literature measures the link between the degree of internationalization (DOI) of a firm's activities and its performance. -
Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information
The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of Canadian GDP growth. -
October 25, 2005
Exports, Imports, and the Appreciation of the Canadian Dollar
An objective assessment of the effects of the appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004 on exports and imports requires a detailed review of the numerous other factors which may have been at play. Dion, Laurence, and Zheng discuss the influences that have affected Canada's international trade over the past two years, including exchange rate movements, global and sector-specific shocks, constraints on the domestic supply of a few products, and competition from emerging economies, most notably, China. The analysis is complemented with econometric models developed at the Bank which provide statistically valid estimates of the contribution of the Canadian-dollar appreciation to the recent developments in exports and imports. -
October 25, 2005
Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005
Cover page
Ready References
The book is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.
Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. -
October 22, 2005
How the Appreciation of the Canadian Dollar Has Affected Canadian Firms: Evidence from the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
To track how firms were affected by the appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004 and the steps they took in response, the Bank included supplementary questions in the quarterly Business Outlook Survey conducted by its regional offices. About half of the firms surveyed reported being adversely affected, one-quarter experienced a favourable impact, and the remainder reported no effect. Jean Mair classifies and summarizes the firms' responses, identifying the sectors that were most and least affected. Causes of the impacts are identified, as well as the actions firms took as a result of the appreciation. The article looks at these actions over time to see what they tell us about firms' adjustment process. -
October 20, 2005
Monetary Policy Report – October 2005
The global economy has continued to grow at a robust pace since the July Monetary Policy Report Update. -
October 18, 2005
What Drives Movements in Exchange Rates?
Understanding what causes the exchange rate to move has been on ongoing challenge for economists. Despite extensive research, traditional macro models of exchange rate determination—with the exception of the Bank of Canada's exchange rate equation—have typically not fared well, motivating economists to explore new ways to model exchange rate movements that incorporate more complex and realistic settings. Within the context of the sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004, Bailliu and King review the macroeconomic models of exchange rates, as well as the micro-structure studies that highlight the importance of trading mechanisms, information asymmetry, and investor heterogeneity for explaining short-term dynamics in exchange rates. In addition to summarizing the current state of knowledge, they highlight recent advances and identify promising alternative approaches. -
October 7, 2005
Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2005
Firms overall remain positive about the economic outlook.