Posts
-
-
What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices
Forecasts of the quarterly real price of oil are routinely used by international organizations and central banks worldwide in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook, yet little is known about how best to generate such forecasts. Our analysis breaks new ground in several dimensions. -
Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada
Historical narratives typically associate financial crises with credit expansions and asset price misalignments. The question is whether some combination of measures of credit and asset prices can be used to predict these events. -
Monetary Policy Implementation in a Negative Rate Environment
Monetary policy implementation could, in theory, be constrained by deeply negative rates since overnight market participants may have an incentive to invest in cash rather than lend to other participants. -
May 28, 2007
Demographic Changes and Policy Implications
Conference held on 28 and 29 May 2007 (papers in unedited, electronic format only) -
Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound
In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada’s projection model—the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model—to consider a suite of extended monetary policies to support the economy following the COVID-19 crisis. -
December 6, 2019
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz to step down in June 2020
The Board of Directors of the Bank of Canada announced today that Governor Stephen S. Poloz has informed them that he will not seek a second term as Governor when his seven-year term expires on June 2, 2020. -
Lori Rennison
Lori Rennison was appointed Senior Policy Director in the International Economic Analysis Department in August 2017. -
November 8, 1995
The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy
In these excerpts from a presentation to a conference in Toronto, Deputy Governor Charles Freedman analyses the way in which the monetary conditions index (MCI) enters into the Bank's thinking and actions. He describes how the Bank works in the context of a forward-looking assessment of economic developments and inflationary pressures to decide upon a desired path for the MCI that will result in a rate of inflation, six to eight quarters ahead, that is within the Bank's target band. Mr. Freedman also uses specific examples to explain how various shocks to the economy can change the Bank's desired path for monetary conditions. He describes the role that tactical considerations relating to market circumstances play regarding the timing of Bank actions to bring monetary conditions onto the desired path and emphasizes the need to give precedence to steadying nervous markets. -
Does Indexation Bias the Estimated Frequency of Price Adjustment?
We assess the implications of price indexation for estimated frequency of price adjustment in sticky price models of business cycles. These models predominantly assume that non-reoptimized prices are indexed to lagged or average inflation.