Staff research, Publications
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Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads?
Since 2002, spreads on emerging market sovereign debt have fallen to historical lows. Given the close links between sovereign spreads, capital flows to emerging markets, and economic growth, understanding the factors driving these spreads is very important. We address this issue in two stages. -
Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? Some New Evidence from Structural Estimation
This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. We develop and estimate a structural general equilibrium two-sector model with sticky prices and wages and limited exchange rate pass-through. -
Liquidity Efficiency and Distribution in the LVTS: Non-Neutrality of System Changes under Network Asymmetry
The authors consider the liquidity efficiency of Tranche 2 of the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS T2) by examining, through an empirical analysis, some plausible strategic reactions of individual participants to a systemwide shock to available liquidity in the system. -
A Structural VAR Approach to Core Inflation in Canada
The author constructs a measure of core inflation using a structural vector autoregression containing oil-price growth, output growth, and inflation. This "macro-founded" measure of inflation forecasts total inflation at least as well as other, atheoretical measures. -
The Implementation of Monetary Policy in Canada
The authors present a detailed discussion of the Bank of Canada's framework for the implementation of monetary policy. As background, they provide a brief overview of the financial system in Canada, including a discussion of the financial services industry and the money market. -
On the Amplification Role of Collateral Constraints
Following the seminal contribution of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997), the role of collateral constraints for business cycle fluctuations has been highlighted by several authors and collateralized debt is becoming a popular feature of business cycle models. -
July 17, 2008
Monetary Policy Report Update – July 2008
Three major developments are affecting the Canadian economy: the protracted weakness in the U.S. economy; ongoing turbulence in global financial markets; and sharp increases in the prices of certain commodities — particularly energy. The first two developments are evolving roughly in line with expectations outlined in the April Monetary Policy Report. -
Information Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery - Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market
We examine large price changes, known as jumps, in the U.S. Treasury market. Using recently developed statistical tools, we identify price jumps in the 2-, 3-, 5-, 10-year notes and 30-year bond during the period of 2005-2006. -
July 7, 2008
Business Outlook Survey - Summer 2008
Despite the recent slowdown in real economic growth in Canada, the results of the summer survey do not suggest widespread weakness across Canadian firms. Firms have, however, become increasingly concerned about pressures on input costs and inflation.