Posts
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September 1, 2021
Statement of Policy Governing the Acquisition and Management of Financial Assets for the Bank of Canada’s Balance Sheet
The Statement of Policy establishes the policy governing the acquisition and management of financial assets for the Bank’s balance sheet. It does not apply to the assets of the Bank’s pension trust fund or supplementary trust fund. -
March 1, 2018
Security features on the vertical $10 note
The bold security features on the vertical $10 note are easy to check and difficult to counterfeit. -
Fixed-Term and Permanent Employment Contracts: Theory and Evidence
This paper constructs a theory of the coexistence of fixed-term and permanent employment contracts in an environment with ex-ante identical workers and employers. Workers under fixed-term contracts can be dismissed at no cost while permanent employees enjoy labor protection. -
The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Role of Market Microstructure Variables
Artificial neural networks (ANN) are employed for high-frequency Canada/U.S. dollar exchange rate forecasting. ANN outperform random walk and linear models in a number of recursive out-of- sample forecasts. -
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Windfall Income Shocks with Finite Planning Horizons
How do households respond when they receive unanticipated income, such as an inheritance or government stimulus cheque? This paper studies these windfall income shocks through a model of household behaviour that generates a realistic consumption response for households along the entire distribution of wealth. -
The Global Effects of U.S. Fiscal Policy
The author examines the global impact of U.S. fiscal policy using the Bank of Canada's Global Economy Model (Lalonde and Muir 2007). In particular, she examines the global macroeconomic implications of the expiration of major tax cuts in the United States and of expected increases in U.S. entitlement program expenditures. -
Provincial Credit Ratings in Canada: An Ordered Probit Analysis
The author estimates the relationship between the provincial credit ratings, as assessed by Standard & Poor's, and a number of economic variables, using the ordered probit methodology. All the variables in her estimation prove to be significant. In particular, she finds that downgrades take place at almost the same speed at different levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio, based on a pooled sample of nine provinces. -
Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns
We decompose total variance into its bad and good components and measure the premia associated with their fluctuations using stock and option data from a large cross-section of firms.