Posts
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Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation
Surveys provide direct information on expectations, but only short histories are available at quarterly frequencies or for long-horizon expectations. -
February 29, 2020
Research Update - February 2020
This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. -
Macroprudential Policy with Capital Buffers
The countercyclical capital buffer is part of Basel III, the set of regulatory measures developed in response to the financial crisis of 2007–09. This study focuses on how time-varying capital buffers can address inefficiencies in economies with endogenous financial crises. -
Financial Crisis Interventions
This paper develops a model of an economy where bank credit supports both productive investment and individual consumption smoothing in the face of idiosyncratic income risk. Bank credit is constrained by bank equity capital. -
News-Driven International Credit Cycles
This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust. -
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The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies
The Federal Reserve’s path for withdrawal of monetary stimulus and eventually increasing interest rates could have substantial repercussions for capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs). -
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The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada’s National Policy
In this paper, we study the impact of Canada’s adoption of protectionist trade policy in 1879 on Canadian welfare. Under the National Policy the Canadian average weighted tariff increased from 14% to 21%. The conventional view is that this was a distortionary policy that negatively affected Canadian welfare.