Posts
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October 30, 2017
Government of Canada direct securities and loans: Classified by remaining term to maturity and type of asset (formerly G6)
Month-end data on unmatured direct securities (excluding non-marketable securities) and non-marketable securities by the type of assets and by their remaining term to maturity. -
Evaluating Linear and Non-Linear Time-Varying Forecast-Combination Methods
This paper evaluates linear and non-linear forecast-combination methods. Among the non-linear methods, we propose a nonparametric kernel-regression weighting approach that allows maximum flexibility of the weighting parameters. -
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The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets
Existing studies using low-frequency data show that macroeconomic shocks contribute little to international stock market covariation. -
November 11, 2009
Declining Inflation Persistence in Canada: Causes and Consequences
The persistence of both core and total consumer price index inflation in Canada has declined significantly since the 1980s. In addition to providing up-to-date estimates of inflation persistence, this article examines possible reasons for the decline suggested in the literature. The role played by monetary policy, through its effect on price- and wage-setting behaviour, is distinguished from possible changes to the structure of the economy that are independent of monetary policy. The authors also discuss the implications for monetary policy of low structural persistence in inflation, including the choice of an inflation-targeting regime versus a price-level-targeting regime. -
Blockchain Revolution Without the Blockchain
The technology behind blockchain has attracted a lot of attention. However, this technology is for the most part not well understood. There is no consensus on what benefits it may bring or on how it may fail. -
The Case of Serial Disappointment
Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors. -
Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation
Surveys provide direct information on expectations, but only short histories are available at quarterly frequencies or for long-horizon expectations.