Staff research, Publications
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December 25, 2009
Senior Loan Officer Survey - Fourth-Quarter 2009
The survey results point to the stabilization of overall lending conditions during the fourth quarter of 2009, following a number of consecutive quarters of credit tightening for business borrowers (Chart 1). -
Real and Nominal Frictions within the Firm: How Lumpy Investment Matters for Price Adjustment
Real rigidities are an important feature of modern sticky price models and are policy-relevant because of their welfare consequences, but cannot be structurally identified from time series. I evaluate the plausibility of capital specificity as a source of real rigidities using a two-dimensional generalized (s,S) model calibrated to micro evidence. -
Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting
The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-linearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format. -
A Consistent Test for Multivariate Conditional Distributions
We propose a new test for a multivariate parametric conditional distribution of a vector of variables yt given a conditional vector xt. -
How Changes in Oil Prices Affect the Macroeconomy
We estimate a New Keynesian general-equilibrium open economy model to examine how changes in oil prices affect the macroeconomy. Our model allows oil price changes to be transmitted through temporary demand and supply channels (affecting the output gap), as well as through persistent supply side effects (affecting trend growth). -
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December 14, 2009
Financial System Review - December 2009
Conditions in the international financial system have improved considerably since June in response to the forceful actions taken by policy-makers around the world.