Staff research, Publications
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June 20, 2010
Financial System Review - June 2010
Risks to the stability of both the Canadian and the global financial systems appeared to be diminishing for most of the period since the last Financial System Review (FSR), as the recovery in financial conditions and the macroeconomic environment continued to solidify. -
Inflation and Unemployment in Competitive Search Equilibrium
Using a monetary search model, Rocheteau, Rupert and Wright (2007) show that the relationship between inflation and unemployment can be positive or negative depending on the primitives of the model. The key features are indivisible labor, nonseparable preferences and bargaining. -
International Capital Flows and Bond Risk Premia
This paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008. -
June 9, 2010
Crude Oil Futures: A Crystal Ball?
Based on recent research, this article discusses three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil. First, the response of the oil-futures curve can be used to identify the persistence of oil-price shocks and to obtain an indicator of the rate at which they will diminish. Second, the spread between the current futures price and the spot price of oil can be interpreted as an indicator of the precautionary demand for oil. Third, because oil-futures prices are volatile, forecasts of the future spot price of oil using futures prices should be supplemented with other information to improve their accuracy. -
Estimating the Structure of the Payment Network in the LVTS: An Application of Estimating Communities in Network Data
In the Canadian large value payment system an important goal is to understand how liquidity is transferred through the system and hence how efficient the system is in settling payments. Understanding the structure of the underlying network of relationships between participants in the payment system is a crucial step in achieving the goal. -
Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity
This paper examines empirically the impact of financial stress on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Canada. The model used is a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if financial stress conditions cross a critical threshold.