Posts
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November 19, 2018
Launch of New $10 Note
Governor Poloz speaks at the launch of Canada’s new vertical $10 note. -
Generalized Autoregressive Gamma Processes
We introduce generalized autoregressive gamma (GARG) processes, a class of autoregressive and moving-average processes in which each conditional moment dynamic is driven by a different and identifiable moving average of the variable of interest. We show that using GARG processes reduces pricing errors by substantially more than using existing autoregressive gamma processes does. -
February 21, 2013
Conference Summary: Financial Intermediation and Vulnerabilities
The Bank of Canada’s annual economic conference, held in October 2012, brought together experts from across Canada and around the world to discuss key issues concerning financial intermediation and vulnerabilities. The conference covered such topics as household finances and their relationship to financial stability, as well as bank regulation, securitization and shadow banking. -
Estimating Policy Functions in Payments Systems Using Reinforcement Learning
We demonstrate the ability of reinforcement learning techniques to estimate the best-response functions of banks participating in high-value payments systems—a real-world strategic game of incomplete information. -
February 23, 2012
Household Insolvency in Canada
With increasing levels of household debt in recent years, the number of households that may be vulnerable to a negative economic shock is rising as well. Decisions made by both the debtor and the creditor can contribute to insolvency. This article presents some stylized facts about insolvency in Canada’s household sector and analyzes the role of creditors in insolvencies. The average debt of an individual filing for bankruptcy is more than 1.5 times that of an average Canadian household; bankruptcy filers tend to be unemployed or in low-wage jobs, and are typically renters. The article reports that banks that approve more loans per branch, which is interpreted as less-intensive use of soft information (such as the loan officer’s assessment of the applicant’s character), experience more client bankruptcies. This finding has important policy implications, because financial institutions that do not use soft information risk further deterioration in their lending portfolios. -
Gold Prices and Inflation
Using data for 14 countries over the 1994 to 2005 period, we assess the leading indicator properties of gold at horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months. -
July 11, 2018
Monetary Policy Report – July 2018
Real GDP in Canada is expected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2018, 2.2 per cent in 2019 and 1.9 per cent in 2020. -