Posts

• Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China?

  Staff Working Paper 2018-12 Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Mark Kruger, Yu-Hsien Liu, Sri Thanabalasingam

  The official Chinese labour market indicators have been seen as problematic, given their small cyclical movement and their only-partial capture of the labour force. In our paper, we build a monthly Chinese labour market conditions index (LMCI) using text analytics applied to mainland Chinese-language newspapers over the period from 2003 to 2017.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C55, E, E2, E24, E27

• Blockchain Revolution Without the Blockchain

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-5 Hanna Halaburda

  The technology behind blockchain has attracted a lot of attention. However, this technology is for the most part not well understood. There is no consensus on what benefits it may bring or on how it may fail.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D8, G, G2, O, O3, O33

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

  Staff Working Paper 2018-11 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel

  This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41

• Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant

  We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37
• March 8, 2018

  Canada’s Economic Expansion: A Progress Report

  Remarks Timothy Lane Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia

  Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the issues that led Governing Council to hold the policy interest rate at 1.25 per cent in their March 7 decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
• March 8, 2018

  $10 Bank Note Unveil

  Due to poor weather and power outages in the Halifax area, today’s official unveiling event for the new $10 bank note may experience technical difficulties.

  Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
• March 8, 2018

  New $10 bank note featuring Viola Desmond unveiled on International Women’s Day

  Media Relations Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Finance Minister Bill Morneau and Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz today unveiled the new $10 bank note featuring Viola Desmond during a ceremony at the Halifax Central Library.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• March 8, 2018

  Unveiling of New $10 Note

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz joins Minister Morneau and Wanda Robson at the unveiling of Canada’s new $10 note.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Bank notes
• March 7, 2018

  Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 1/4 per cent

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases

• Is the Excess Bond Premium a Leading Indicator of Canadian Economic Activity?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-4 Maxime Leboeuf, Daniel Hyun

  This note investigates whether Canadian corporate spreads and the excess bond premium (EBP) lead Canadian economic activity. Indeed, we find that corporate spreads precede changes in real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada over the subsequent year. The EBP accounts for most of this property. Further, an unanticipated increase in the Canadian EBP forecasts a deterioration of domestic macroeconomic conditions: a 10-basis-point increase results in a fall in both GDP and consumer price index (CPI) of 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively, over three years.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G1, G12