Posts
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How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?
We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts. -
January 8, 2018
Business Outlook Survey - Winter 2017–18
Business sentiment in the winter Business Outlook Survey remains positive: the sales outlook is still healthy, despite some moderation. At the same time, capacity and labour pressures are becoming more apparent and are stimulating firms’ employment and investment plans. -
January 8, 2018
Senior Loan Officer Survey - Fourth Quarter of 2017
Survey results suggest that overall business-lending conditions eased slightly in the fourth quarter. This marks the first time that lending conditions have eased since the oil price shock of 2014. -
Merchant Acceptance of Cash and Credit Cards at the Point of Sale
Recent data show that the use of credit cards in Canada has been increasing, while the use of cash has been declining. At the same time, only two-thirds of small or medium-sized businesses accept credit cards. -
Capital-Goods Imports and US Growth
Capital-goods imports have become an increasing source of growth for the U.S. economy. To understand this phenomenon, we build a neoclassical growth model with international trade in capital goods in which agents face exogenous paths of total factor and investment-specific productivity measures. -
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December 31, 2017
Research Update - December 2017
This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. -
The Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on the Canadian Economy
This note reviews the channels through which scheduled minimum wage increases over the coming years may affect Canadian economic activity and inflation and assesses their macroeconomic impacts. From reduced-form estimates of direct minimum wage pass-through, we find that consumer price index (CPI) inflation could be boosted by about 0.1 percentage point (pp) on average in 2018. -