November 17, 2011
Staff research, Publications
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Innovation and Growth with Financial, and Other, Frictions
The generation and implementation of ideas, or knowledge, is crucial for economic performance. We study this process in a model of endogenous growth with frictions. -
Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession
In this paper, we explore the link between stress in the domestic financial sector and the capital flight faced by countries in the 2008-9 global crisis. Both the timing of emergence of internal financial stress in developing economies, and the size of the peak-trough declines in the stock price indices was comparable to that in high income countries, indicating that there was no decoupling, even before Lehman Brothers’ demise. -
How Do You Pay? The Role of Incentives at the Point-of-Sale
This paper uses discrete-choice models to quantify the role of consumer socioeconomic characteristics, payment instrument attributes, and transaction features on the probability of using cash, debit card, or credit card at the point-of-sale. -
October 26, 2011
Monetary Policy Report – October 2011
The Bank projects that the economy will expand by 2.1 per cent in 2011, 1.9 per cent in 2012 and 2.9 per cent in 2013. Total CPI inflation is expected to trough around 1 per cent by the middle of 2012. -
Money and Price Posting under Private Information
We study price posting with undirected search in a search-theoretic monetary model with divisible money and divisible goods. Ex ante homogeneous buyers experience match specific preference shocks in bilateral trades. The shocks follow a continuous distribution and the realization of the shocks is private information. -
October 17, 2011
Senior Loan Officer Survey - Third-Quarter 2011
The survey results point to an overall easing in business-lending conditions during the third quarter of 2011. The balance of opinion of both the price and non-price aspects of business lending eased during the quarter. -
October 17, 2011
Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2011
Responses to the autumn survey point to less optimism among firms than in the summer survey. Indicators of future business activity, capacity constraints and price pressures have all moved down from the levels recorded in the previous survey. -
Fixed-Term and Permanent Employment Contracts: Theory and Evidence
This paper constructs a theory of the coexistence of fixed-term and permanent employment contracts in an environment with ex-ante identical workers and employers. Workers under fixed-term contracts can be dismissed at no cost while permanent employees enjoy labor protection. -
A Stochastic Volatility Model with Conditional Skewness
We develop a discrete-time affine stochastic volatility model with time-varying conditional skewness (SVS). Importantly, we disentangle the dynamics of conditional volatility and conditional skewness in a coherent way.