Posts

• What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-25 Dany Brouillette, José Dorich, Chris D'Souza, Adrienne Gagnon, Claudia Godbout

  This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• Seeking Safety

  Staff Working Paper 2018-41 Toni Ahnert, Enrico Perotti

  The scale of safe assets suggests a structural demand for a safe wealth share beyond transaction and liquidity roles. We study how investors achieve a reference wealth level by combining self-insurance and contingent liquidation of investment. Intermediaries improve upon autarky, insuring investors with poor self-insurance and limiting liquidation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G2
• August 25, 2018

  The Fourth Industrial Revolution and Central Banking

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole, Wyoming

  Governor Poloz talks about the economic benefits expected from disruptive digital technologies and the implications for monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy, Productivity

• The Welfare Cost of Inflation Revisited: The Role of Financial Innovation and Household Heterogeneity

  Staff Working Paper 2018-40 Shutao Cao, Césaire Meh, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, Yaz Terajima

  We document that, across households, the money consumption ratio increases with age and decreases with consumption, and that there has been a large increase in the money consumption ratio during the recent era of very low interest rates. We construct an overlapping generations (OLG) model of money holdings for transaction purposes subject to age (older households use more money), cohort (younger generations are exposed to better transaction technology), and time effects (nominal interest rates affect money holdings).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E41

• Sluggish Forecasts

  Staff Working Paper 2018-39 Monica Jain

  Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37
• August 21, 2018

  Summary of Comments – Government of Canada Debt Distribution Framework Review Consultations

  A Summary of Comments received from the March 2018 Government of Canada Debt Distribution Framework Review Consultations is being published on the Bank of Canada’s website

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices

• Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-9 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel

  This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37, E5, E52
• August 15, 2018

  RCMP’s E Division wins Bank of Canada counterfeit prevention award

  The Bank of Canada congratulates the Integrated Counterfeit Enforcement Team from British Columbia’s Federal Serious and Organized Crime branch, E Division—Financial Integrity. They are the winners of the 2018 Law Enforcement Award of Excellence for Counterfeit Deterrence.

  Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
• July 31, 2018

  Bank of Canada publishes its 2019 schedule for policy interest rate announcements, the release of the Monetary Policy Report, the Business Outlook Survey and the Senior Loan Officer Survey

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada today published its 2019 schedule for policy interest rate announcements and the release of the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, and reconfirmed the scheduled interest rate announcement dates for the remainder of this year.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• July 31, 2018

  Research Update - July 2018

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters