Posts
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How Important Is Liquidity Risk for Sovereign Bond Risk Premia? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange
This paper uses the framework of arbitrage-pricing theory to study the relationship between liquidity risk and sovereign bond risk premia. The London Stock Exchange in the late 19th century is an ideal laboratory in which to test the proposition that liquidity risk affects the price of sovereign debt. -
Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals
We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines. -
The Bank of Canada COVID‑19 stringency index: measuring policy response across provinces
We construct an index that systematically measures and tracks the stringency of government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across Canadian provinces. Researchers can use this stringency index to analyze how the pandemic is affecting the economy. -
April 1, 2024
Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2024
Consumers believe inflation has slowed, but expectations for inflation in the near term have barely changed. Sticky inflation expectations may be due to elevated uncertainty about near-term inflation and still-high expectations for interest rates and rent costs over the next 12 months. Long-term inflation expectations have increased from low levels. Relative to last quarter, consumers now think domestic factors supporting high inflation, such as high government spending and elevated housing costs, will take longer to resolve. High inflation and high interest rates continue to impact household budgets and spending decisions, but consumers are less pessimistic about the economic outlook. After easing for several quarters, perceptions of the labour market have stabilized, and high inflation expectations continue to support stronger-than-average expectations for wage growth. -
April 30, 2003
Opening Statement before the Senate Banking, Trade and Commerce Committee
The last time I testified before this committee was in the spring of 2002, because we were unable to arrange our regular meeting last fall. You will recall that following the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States, we quickly and aggressively cut our policy interest rate to shore up confidence and support domestic demand. By last spring, evidence had already started to build that demand was growing faster than the economy's production capacity. -
June 8, 2017
Canada’s International Investment Position: Benefits and Potential Vulnerabilities
While greater global financial integration is beneficial, the authors discuss how foreign capital inflows can also facilitate the buildup of domestic vulnerabilities and potentially lead to destabilizing reversals. Canada’s current international investment position is typical of advanced economies and will likely continue to act as an economic stabilizer. However, the growth and composition of Canada’s international investment position warrant continued monitoring. -
Identifying the Degree of Collusion Under Proportional Reduction
Proportional reduction is a common cartel practice in which cartel members reduce their output proportionately. We develop a method to quantify this reduction relative to a benchmark market equilibrium scenario and relate the reduction to the traditional conduct parameter. -
November 16, 2017
Factors Behind the 2014 Oil Price Decline
Oil prices have declined sharply over the past three years. While both supply and demand factors played a role in the large oil price decline of 2014, global supply growth seems to have been the predominant force. The most important drivers were likely the surprising growth of US shale oil production, the output decisions of the Organization of the Petro-leum Exporting Countries and the weaker-than-expected global growth that followed the 2009 global financial crisis. -
An Assessment of the Bank of Canada's Term PRA Facility
This paper empirically assesses the effectiveness of the Bank of Canada's term Purchase and Resale Agreement (PRA) facility in reducing short-term bank funding pressures, as measured by the CDOR-OIS spread.