October 24, 2012
Staff research, Publications
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October 15, 2012
Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2012
The results of the autumn survey suggest that, in an environment of slow global economic growth and uncertainty about demand, firms have tem¬pered their expectations for business activity. -
October 15, 2012
Senior Loan Officer Survey - Third-Quarter 2012
The survey results point to a continued easing in overall business-lending conditions during the third quarter of 2012. -
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The Economic Value of Realized Volatility: Using High-Frequency Returns for Option Valuation
Many studies have documented that daily realized volatility estimates based on intraday returns provide volatility forecasts that are superior to forecasts constructed from daily returns only. We investigate whether these forecasting improvements translate into economic value added. -
Financial Conditions and the Money-Output Relationship in Canada
We propose a drifting-coefficient model to empirically study the effect of money on output growth in Canada and to examine the role of prevailing financial conditions for that relationship. We show that such a time-varying approach can be a useful way of modelling the impact of money on growth, and can partly reconcile the lack of concensus in the literature on the question of whether money affects growth. -
China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America
The international business cycle is very important for Latin America’s economic performance as the recent global crisis vividly illustrated. This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. -
The Evolution of Canada’s Global Export Market Share
Following gains during the 1990s, Canada’s global market share of goods exports has declined markedly in recent years. In this regard, the constant market share analysis framework is used to decompose changes in Canada’s global market share into competitiveness and structural effects over the 1990‐2010 period, as well as to draw some comparisons to a number of other countries.