Posts

• July 24, 2024

  Bank of Canada interest rate announcement and release of the Monetary Policy Report

  On Wednesday, July 24, 2024, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision. The Bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at the same time as the rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• July 22, 2024

  CFEC Releases Results of April 2024 Foreign Exchange Volume Survey

  The Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee (CFEC) released today the results of its April 2024 semi-annual survey of foreign exchange volumes in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee

• Credit Card Minimum Payment Restrictions

  Staff Working Paper 2024-26 Jason Allen, Michael Boutros, Benedict Guttman-Kenney

  We study a government policy that restricts repayment choices with the aim of reducing credit card debt and estimate its effects by applying a difference-in-differences methodology to comprehensive credit-reporting data about Canadian consumers. We find the policy has trade-offs: reducing revolving debt comes at a cost of reducing credit access, and potentially increasing delinquency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D1, D18, E, E2, E21, G, G2, G28, G5, G51

• The reliance of Canadians on credit card debt as a predictor of financial stress

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-18 Jia Qi Xiao

  I analyze the relationship between carrying a credit card balance and future financial stress. I find that carrying a balance significantly increases the likelihood that credit card holders miss future debt payments. This likelihood tends to rise as credit card balances grow and are held for long periods.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21

• Could all-to-all trading improve liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-17 Jabir Sandhu, Rishi Vala

  We find that on any given day, nearly half of Government of Canada bond transactions by clients of dealers can be offset with other clients, including during the turmoil in March 2020. Our results show that under certain conditions clients could potentially trade directly with each other and are a step towards understanding the relevance of broader all-to-all trading in the Government of Canada bond market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G13, G14, G2, G21, G23
• July 15, 2024

  Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2024

  Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse continue to signal weak demand, which is weighing on investment and hiring plans. While few firms are planning layoffs, labour markets are widely seen as continuing to soften. Although they remain above average, wage and inflation expectations are easing. Most firms that made abnormally large price increases in the past 12 months do not plan to do so again in the coming year.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• July 15, 2024

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2024

  Consumers’ perceptions of inflation are unchanged from a quarter ago, but their expectations for near-term inflation declined significantly. While both measures have improved substantially in recent quarters, they remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Most consumers continue to think that domestic factors are contributing to high inflation. Sentiment remains subdued and unchanged from last quarter, as high inflation and elevated interest rates continue to constrain people’s budgets. Perceived financial stress remains high, most consumers continue to report spending cuts, and pessimism about future economic conditions persists. Canadians’ perceptions of the labour market have weakened this quarter, especially among private sector employees. Yet overall wage growth expectations reached a new survey high, driven by public sector employees.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
• July 15, 2024

  The Bank of Canada releases the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  On Monday, July 15, 2024, the Bank of Canada will release the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• July 12, 2024

  Bank of Canada announces increases to the dealer and round limits for Overnight Repo operations

  Effective Monday, July 15, 2024, dealer limits for Overnight Repo (OR) operations will increase to $3 billion for each eligible participant from the previous $1 billion.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Overnight repo operations

• The Ecology of Automated Market Makers

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-12 Annetta Ho, Cosmin Cazan, Andrew Schrumm

  This paper describes the ecology of automated market makers, which are the most popular decentralized exchange model for the pricing and trading of crypto assets within decentralized finance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2