August 13, 2020
Posts
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May 16, 2016
Estimating Canada’s Effective Lower Bound
Recently, the Bank of Canada has estimated the effective lower bound (ELB) on its policy interest rate to be about -50 basis points. This article outlines the analysis that underpins that estimate by quantifying the costs of storing and using cash in Canada. It also explores how some international markets have adapted to negative interest rates, issues surrounding their implementation, as well as their transmission to other interest rates in the economy. Finally, it discusses theoretical ideas on how the ELB could be reduced further. -
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?
Should monetary policy lean against housing market booms? We approach this question using a small-scale, regime-switching New Keynesian model, where housing market crashes arrive with a logit probability that depends on the level of household debt. -
October 7, 2016
Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2016
The autumn Business Outlook Survey provides some signs of improving business prospects, as resource-related activity appears to be gradually bottoming out and foreign demand is providing steady support to firms’ sales expectations. -
Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases
I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance. -
Excess Volatility and Speculative Bubbles in the Canadian Dollar: Real or Imagined?
Greater intervention by the public sector is often proposed as a solution to the increased speculation and excessive price volatility thought to characterize today's competitive world financial system. -
Public Venture Capital and Entrepreneurship
Entrepreneurship is a key factor in promoting growth in output and employment. Consequently, to encourage new start-ups, most governments in developed countries have public venture capital programs. -
June 12, 2014
Making Banks Safer: Implementing Basel III
Éric Chouinard and Graydon Paulin review the progress to date in implementing Basel III, the new framework of global regulatory standards for the banking sector developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The report highlights the expected net benefits of implementing Basel III, as well as the challenges in ensuring international consistency in measuring the risk-weighted capital of banks. It includes a discussion on how implementing Basel III has affected the banking system in Canada and other important jurisdictions, and demonstrates the need for ongoing assessment of the effects on the financial system and the macroeconomy. -
Endogenous Borrowing Constraints and Consumption Volatility in a Small Open Economy
Consumption volatility relative to output volatility is consistently higher in emerging economies than in developed economies. -
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight
This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements.