Staff research, Publications
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Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?
The answer as to whether there are gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts depends on the objective. The approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model and using it for all horizons up to two years. -
On the Importance of Sales for Aggregate Price Flexibility
Macroeconomists have traditionally ignored the behavior of temporary price markdowns (“sales”) by retailers. Although sales are common in the micro price data, they are assumed to be unrelated to macroeconomic phenomena and generally filtered out. -
October 22, 2014
Monetary Policy Report – October 2014
Real GDP growth is projected to average around 2 1/2 per cent over the next year before slowing to around 2 per cent in 2016. -
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Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective
This paper discusses how central banking is evolving in light of recent experience, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of uncertainty into policy decision-making. -
October 10, 2014
Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2014
The autumn Business Outlook Survey shows that businesses, mainly exporters, see signs of modestly firmer demand. However, this has not led to a notable strengthening in investment intentions for the next 12 months.
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October 10, 2014
Senior Loan Officer Survey - Third-Quarter 2014
The survey results point to a further easing in business-lending conditions during the third quarter of 2014. The net easing was seen in the price conditions of business lending, while overall non-price conditions were almost unchanged.