Posts
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October 17, 2008
Bank of Canada Announces Further Details of its Term PRA Facility for Private Sector Money Market Instruments
The Bank of Canada announced today further details of its temporary additional Term Purchase and Resale Agreement (PRA) facility for private sector money market instruments.
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Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach
This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance. Our main finding is that the spread between the yield on Canadian […] -
Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts
We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests. -
November 22, 2023
Ending the pain of high inflation
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem explains how high inflation is hurting Canadians and how monetary policy is working to bring inflation back to target. -
June 18, 2003
Governor Reviews Recent Economic Developments
Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge reviewed some of the developments that are influencing the Canadian economy in a speech today to the Metropolitan Halifax Chamber of Commerce. -
Do Firms Adjust Toward a Target Leverage Level?
This paper studies capital structure adjustment mechanisms of firms that experience substantial changes in leverage. -
Exporting and FDI with Endogenous Productivity
This paper provides an analysis of how a firm’s decision to serve a foreign market by exporting or by engaging in foreign direct investment (FDI) affects firm productivity, when productivity is endogeneous as a function of training. The main result of our paper is that, with endogeneous productivity, exporting results in lower productivity than does FDI, but exporting may result in higher or lower employment and output than does FDI. -
Multibank Holding Companies and Bank Stability
This paper studies the relationship between bank holding company affiliation and the individual and systemic risk of banks. Using the 2005 hurricane season in the US as an exogenous shock to bank balance sheets, we show that banks that are part of a holding parent company are more resilient than independent banks. -
May 22, 2004
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Industrialized Countries
Economists' long-standing interest in the degree to which exchange rate movements are reflected in prices was rekindled in the 1970s by a combination of rising inflation and the adoption of more flexible exchange rate regimes in many industrialized countries. Specifically, there were concerns that a large currency depreciation could degenerate into an inflationary spiral. Such fears were curtailed in the 1980s and early 1990s as industrialized countries began to reduce and stabilize their inflation rates. The low-inflation period most industrialized countries entered approximately a decade ago coincided with significant exchange rate depreciations that had much smaller effects on consumer prices than expected. This led to a belief that the extent to which exchange rate movements are passed through to consumer prices has declined. In this article, the authors examine why pass-through could be incomplete and review empirical estimates to determine whether pass-through has indeed declined, suggesting possible reasons for this decline and discussing the implications for monetary policy.