Posts

• October 28, 2020

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
• October 28, 2020

  Interim RPAC Meeting (October 28 and 29, 2020)

  Topics: End-user fund safeguarding expectations, operational risk

  Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Retail Payments Advisory Committee
• October 28, 2020

  Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, recalibrates its quantitative easing program

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• October 28, 2020

  Monetary Policy Report – October 2020

  

  The Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by almost 4 percent on average in 2021 and 2022, following a decline of about 5 ½ percent in 2020.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
• October 27, 2020

  Research Update - October 2020

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-25 Dany Brouillette, Julien Champagne, Julien McDonald-Guimond

  After COVID-19, we expect potential output growth to stabilize around 1.2 percent. This is lower than the 2010–18 average growth of 1.8 percent. Relative to the April 2019 reassessment, the growth profile is revised down. Given the unknown course of the pandemic, uncertainty around these estimates is higher than in previous years.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6

• The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-24 Dmitry Matveev, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Rodrigo Sekkel

  The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Announcing the Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility: a COVID‑19 event study

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Kaetlynd McRae, Jonathan Witmer

  The Bank of Canada launched the Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility (BAPF) to ensure that the bankers’ acceptance (BA) market could continue to function well during the financial crisis induced by the COVID‑19 pandemic. We review the impact that the announcement of this facility had on BA yields in the secondary market. We find that BA yield spreads declined by 15 basis points on the day of the announcement and by up to 70 basis points over a longer period. Using an econometric framework, we quantify the effect of the announcement and confirm early assertions presented in the Bank’s 2020 Financial System Review.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23

• Canadian stock market since COVID‑19: Why a V-shaped price recovery?

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-22 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Ryan Shotlander

  Between February 19 and March 23, 2020, the Canadian stock market plunged due to the severe economic impact of COVID-19. By the end of the summer, the stock market had already recovered a significant portion of its losses, leaving many asking if investors see the economy through rose-coloured glasses. Despite these concerns, we find that current market valuations for companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange align well, on average, with the declines in earning forecasts observed since the start of the year. We also find these market valuations are consistent with the discount rate returning to its pre-pandemic level.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
• October 19, 2020

  CARR’s mandate expanded to include analysis of CDOR

  The Canadian Fixed Income Forum (CFIF) has expanded the mandate of the Canadian Alternative Reference Rate working group (CARR) to include an analysis of the Canadian Dollar Offered Rate (CDOR).

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group