Posts
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It takes a panel to predict the future: What the stock market says about future economic growth in Canada
Valuation ratios in the Canadian stock market can help reveal investors’ expectations about future economic growth because the impact of economic growth on valuation ratios can vary across industries. We find that this variation helps produce accurate forecasts of future growth of real gross domestic product in Canada. The forecasts from our model declined by just over 3 percentage points between January 2022 and February 2023—a period when the Bank of Canada rapidly increased the overnight rate. As well, we find that interest-rate-sensitive industries had an outsized contribution to this expected slowdown in growth. -
May 20, 1997
Monetary Policy Report – May 1997
Since the last Report, the Canadian economy has advanced broadly in line with expectations. -
What Drives Bank-Intermediated Trade Finance? Evidence from Cross-Country Analysis
Empirical work on the underlying causes of the recent dislocations in bank-intermediated trade finance has been limited by the poor availability of hard data. This paper analyzes the key determinants of bank-intermediated trade finance using a novel data set covering ten banking jurisdictions. -
Non-bank financial intermediation in Canada: a pulse check
The Canadian non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector saw strong growth in 2018 and 2019. In 2020, COVID‑19 caused a financial shock. We provide a preliminary analysis on the impact of COVID‑19 on the sector as well as an update on its growth. -
Labour Markets, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy Regimes
We develop an equilibrium model of the monetary policy transmission mechanism that highlights information frictions in the market for money and search frictions in the market for labour. -
June 18, 2003
Recent Economic Developments and the Conduct of Monetary Policy
It's been a year since I last spoke in Halifax, and a lot has changed since then. We've witnessed some extraordinary events, both in Canada and around the world. On the whole, Canada's economy has withstood the turmoil quite well. The impact of some more recent events is not yet clear. -
Educational Spillovers: Does One Size Fit All?
In a search model of production, where agents accumulate heterogeneous amounts of human capital, an individual worker's wage depends on average human capital in the searching population. -
July 23, 2018
Historical Assets Eligible as Collateral under the Bank of Canada’s Standing Liquidity Facility – July 23, 2018 to July 28, 2019
The Bank of Canada (the Bank), through its Standing Liquidity Facility (SLF), provides access to liquidity to those institutions that participate directly in the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). -
September 20, 2004
Canadian Monetary Policy in an Evolving World Economy
The Bank does look to the Chamber to help us understand how economic developments are unfolding at the industry level. And I particularly want to thank the Chamber for being an ongoing partner in our efforts to smoothly introduce three new high-denomination bank notes this year.