Staff research, Publications
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November 8, 2023
Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of October 25, 2023
This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on October 25, 2023. -
November 6, 2023
Market Participants Survey—Third Quarter of 2023
The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 30 financial market participants. -
International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers
We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world. -
Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services
This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services. -
Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how
This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used. -
Uncovering the Differences Among Displaced Workers: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records. -
Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans
We investigate alternative student debt contracts that defer payments and ease the burden of student loans on US households by preserving disposable income early in borrowers’ lives. Our model shows substantial welfare gains from these contracts relative to existing plans and gains similar to the Biden administration's proposals but with a significantly lower cost. -
October 25, 2023
Monetary Policy Report – October 2023
Higher interest rates are working to ease price pressures in Canada and inflation is coming down, though progress to the 2% target is slow. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3½% until the middle of 2024, returning to target in 2025. -
Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning
Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate labour share (Autor et al. 2020; De Loecker et al. 2020). We explore the use of supervised machine learning techniques to identify a population of nascent high-growth firms using Canadian administrative firm-level data.