J - Labor and Demographic Economics

• Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee

  We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15

• Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S.

  Staff Working Paper 2023-57 Anna Maria Mayda, Mine Z. Senses, Walter Steingress

  Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, H, H4, H41, H7, J, J6, J61, J68, R, R5

• How Far Do Canadians Need to Travel to Access Cash?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-28 Heng Chen, Daneal O’Habib, Hongyu Xiao

  This paper develops a travel-based metric to measure Canadians’ access to cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. We find that, overall, access to cash remained stable between 2019 and 2022. The total number of ABMs in Canada increased by 3.7% and the total number of branches decreased by 5.2% during that period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, J, J1, J15, R, R5, R51

• The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records

  Staff Working Paper 2023-55 Serdar Birinci, Youngmin Park, Kurt See

  When estimating earnings losses upon job separation, existing strategies focus on separations in mass layoffs to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J3, J31, J6, J63, J65

• Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2023-52 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See

  We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E5, E52, J, J3, J31, J6, J62, J64

• Labour Supply and Firm Size

  Staff Working Paper 2023-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul

  This paper documents a systematic pattern of how wages, hours and their relationship vary across firms of different sizes. Using a model with heterogeneous firms and workers, we show how the interplay between wages, hours and firm size affect worker sorting and inequality.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J3, J31

• Digitalization: Labour Markets

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-16 Alex Chernoff, Gabriela Galassi

  In this paper, the authors assess the relationship between digitalization and labour demand and supply, and how this relationship affects wages and income inequality. We also explore implications of recent digitalization trends for the future of work.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Labour markets JEL Code(s): I, I2, I23, J, J2, J23, J24, O, O3, O33

• Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2023-29 Matteo Cacciatore, Stefano Gnocchi, Daniela Hauser

  We estimate the effects of economic uncertainty on time use and discuss its macroeconomic implications. We develop a model to demonstrate that substitution between market and non-market work provides an additional insurance margin to households, weakening precautionary savings and labour supply and lowering aggregate demand, ultimately amplifying the contractionary effects of uncertainty.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J22

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-7 Erik Ens, Kurt See, Corinne Luu

  We enhance benchmarks for assessing strength in the Canadian labour market. We find the labour market remains tight despite recent strong increases in labour supply, including among prime-working-age women. We also assess the anticipated easing in labour conditions in a context of high population growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6

• Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share

  Staff Working Paper 2023-20 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short

  Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D33, E, E2, E25, J, J1, J3, J6, J62