G1 - General Financial Markets

• High-Frequency Trading Competition

  Staff Working Paper 2014-19 Jonathan Brogaard, Corey Garriott, Anna Pomeranets

  We analyze trading dynamics as successive high-frequency trading (HFT) firms begin to trade stocks in an equity market. Entrants compete with incumbents for volume, and there is crowding out.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1

• Interest on Cash, Fundamental Value Process and Bubble Formation on Experimental Asset Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2014-18 Giovanni Giusti, Janet Hua Jiang, Yiping Xu

  We study the formation of price bubbles on experimental asset markets where cash earns interest. There are two main conclusions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C90, G, G1, G10

• Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models

  Staff Working Paper 2014-13 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns, adding to current forward rates, and that (ii) a Markovian model for monthly forward rates cannot generate the pattern of predictability in annual returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12

• Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work

  Staff Working Paper 2014-11 Christiane Baumeister, Pierre Guérin, Lutz Kilian

  The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market information helps forecast the real price of oil in physical markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, G, G1, G14, Q, Q4, Q43

• Macroeconomic Experiences and Risk Taking of Euro Area Households

  Staff Working Paper 2014-10 Miguel Ampudia, Michael Ehrmann

  This paper studies to what extent the experiences of households shape their willingness to take financial risks. It follows the methodology of Malmendier and Nagel (2011) and applies it to a novel data set on household finances covering euro area households.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D0, D03, D1, D14, D8, D83, G, G1, G11

• Database of Sovereign Defaults, 2017

  Technical Report No. 101 David Beers, Jamshid Mavalwalla

  Until recently, there have been few efforts to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada’s Credit Rating Assessment Group (CRAG) has developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults posted on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15

• Corporate Governance, Product Market Competition and Debt Financing

  Staff Working Paper 2014-5 Teodora Paligorova, Jun Yang

  This paper examines the impact of product market competition and corporate governance on the cost of debt financing and the use of bond covenants. We find that more anti-takeover provisions are associated with a lower cost of debt only in competitive industries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G3, G34

• It Hurts (Stock Prices) When Your Team Is About to Lose a Soccer Match

  Staff Working Paper 2014-2 Michael Ehrmann, David-Jan Jansen

  The end result of major sporting events has been shown to affect next-day stock returns through shifts in investor mood. By studying the soccer matches that led to the elimination of France and Italy from the 2010 FIFA World Cup, we show that mood-related pricing effects can materialize as sporting events unfold.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0, G02, G1, G12, G14, G15

• Regime Switches in the Risk-Return Trade-Off

  Staff Working Paper 2013-51 Eric Ghysels, Pierre Guérin, Massimiliano Marcellino

  This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12

• CoMargin

  Staff Working Paper 2013-47 Jorge Cruz Lopez, Jeffrey H. Harris, Christophe Hurlin, Christophe Pérignon

  We present CoMargin, a new methodology to estimate collateral requirements for central counterparties (CCPs) in derivatives markets. CoMargin depends on both the tail risk of a given market participant and its interdependence with other participants.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13