G1 - General Financial Markets

• What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?

  Staff Working Paper 2014-42 Ron Alquist, Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios

  Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures the value of storing crude oil over the borrowing period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q4, Q43

• Improving Public Equity Markets? No Pain, No Gain

  Staff Working Paper 2014-41 Katya Kartashova

  This paper quantifies the effects of improving public equity markets on macroeconomic aggregates and welfare. I use an open-economy extension of Angeletos (2007), where entrepreneurs face idiosyncratic productivity risk in privately held firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, O, O1, O11, O16

• Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2014-37 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li

  The objective of this paper is to propose an early warning system that can predict the likelihood of the occurrence of financial stress events within a given period of time. To achieve this goal, the signal extraction approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) is used to monitor the evolution of a number of economic indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a financial stress event.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C4, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, F, F3, F36, F37, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• Capital Flows and Macroprudential Policies - A Multilateral Assessment of Effectiveness and Externalities

  Staff Working Paper 2014-31 John Beirne, Christian Friedrich

  This paper assesses the effectiveness and associated externalities that arise when macroprudential policies (MPPs) are used to manage international capital flows. Using a sample of up to 139 countries, we examine the impact of eight different MPP measures on cross-border bank flows over the period 1999-2009.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F5, G, G0, G01, G1, G11

• Optimal Margining and Margin Relief in Centrally Cleared Derivatives Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2014-29 Radoslav Raykov

  A major policy challenge posed by derivatives clearinghouses is that their collateral requirements can rise sharply in times of stress, reducing market liquidity and further exacerbating downturns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21

• Improving Overnight Loan Identification in Payments Systems

  Staff Working Paper 2014-25 Mark Rempel

  Information on the allocation and pricing of over-the-counter (OTC) markets is scarce. Furfine (1999) pioneered an algorithm that provides transaction-level data on the OTC interbank lending market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C53, E, E4, E42, E44, G, G1, G10
• June 12, 2014

  Reforming Financial Benchmarks: An International Perspective

  Financial System Review - June 2014 Thomas Thorn, Harri Vikstedt

  Thomas Thorn and Harri Vikstedt examine the efforts being taken internationally and in Canada to enhance the governance and integrity of financial benchmarks. The report provides an overview of how interbank interest rate benchmarks are set and describes the weaknesses in the process that were exposed by the financial crisis. It also explains recent policy developments designed to make global and Canadian interbank benchmarks more robust.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11

• Rollover Risk, Liquidity and Macroprudential Regulation

  Staff Working Paper 2014-23 Toni Ahnert

  I study rollover risk in the wholesale funding market when intermediaries can hold liquidity ex ante and are subject to fire sales ex post.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G2, G28
• May 13, 2014

  The Canadian Dollar as a Reserve Currency

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Lukasz Pomorski, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Eric Wolfe

  This article provides an overview of the growth of Canadian-dollar-denominated assets in official foreign reserves. Based on International Monetary Fund data and on internal Bank of Canada analysis, we estimate that the total reserve holdings of Canadian-dollar assets increased from negligible levels before 2008 to around US$200 billion in the third quarter of 2013. We discuss the determinants of this increase, as well as its potential impact on Canadian debt markets, for example, lower yields and therefore reduced financing costs for the Government of Canada, and the possible negative impact on market liquidity.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Foreign reserves management, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• High-Frequency Trading Competition

  Staff Working Paper 2014-19 Jonathan Brogaard, Corey Garriott, Anna Pomeranets

  We analyze trading dynamics as successive high-frequency trading (HFT) firms begin to trade stocks in an equity market. Entrants compete with incumbents for volume, and there is crowding out.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1