G1 - General Financial Markets

• Complementing the Credit Risk Assessment of Financial Counterparties with Market-Based Indicators

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-15 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Maarten van Oordt

  The Bank’s internal credit risk assessment abilities are regularly enhanced. In this note, we present a recent innovation that extends the set of market-based indicators used in the credit risk assessment of financial counterparties.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G24

• Measuring Limits of Arbitrage in Fixed-Income Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2017-44 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin

  We use relative value to measure limits to arbitrage in fixed-income markets. Relative value captures apparent deviations from no-arbitrage relationships. It is simple, intuitive and can be computed model-free for any bond.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, International financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Policy Rules for Capital Controls

  Staff Working Paper 2017-42 Gurnain Pasricha

  This paper attempts to borrow the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions in monetary policy literature and apply it to capital controls policy literature. Using a novel weekly dataset on capital controls policy actions in 21 emerging economies over the period 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2015, I examine the mercantilist and macroprudential motivations for capital control policies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4, F5, G, G0, G1

• A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes

  Staff Working Paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts

  Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19

• Do Canadian Broker-Dealers Act as Agents or Principals in Bond Trading?

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-11 Daniel Hyun, Jesse Johal, Corey Garriott

  Technology, risk tolerance and regulation may influence dealers to reduce their trading as principals (using their own balance sheets for sales and purchases of securities) in favour of agency trading (matching client trades).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1

• Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions

  Staff Working Paper 2017-33 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  This paper proposes a novel asymptotic least-squares estimator of multi-country Gaussian dynamic term structure models that is easy to compute and asymptotically efficient, even when the number of countries is relatively large—a situation in which other recently proposed approaches lose their tractability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15

• Has Liquidity in Canadian Government Bond Markets Deteriorated?

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Jun Yang

  This note presents measures of liquidity used by the Bank of Canada to monitor market conditions and discusses recent trends in Government of Canada (GoC) fixed-income market liquidity. Our results indicate that the Bank’s measures have improved since the financial crisis. Furthermore, GoC market liquidity deteriorated following several stressful events: the euro crisis in 2011, the taper tantrum in 2013 and the oil price shock in 2015. In all three cases, the deterioration remained within historical norms and liquidity returned to normal levels afterwards.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14

• How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models

  Staff Working Paper 2017-32 Benjamin Klaus, Thibaut Duprey

  This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15

• Information Contagion and Systemic Risk

  Staff Working Paper 2017-29 Co-Pierre Georg, Toni Ahnert

  We examine the effect of ex-post information contagion on the ex-ante level of systemic risk defined as the probability of joint bank default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G2, G21

• Fintech: Is This Time Different? A Framework for Assessing Risks and Opportunities for Central Banks

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-10 Meyer Aaron, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Samantha Sohal

  We investigate the risks and opportunities to the mandates of central banks arising from fintech developments.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G1, G2, L, L1