G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates

• What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?

  Staff Working Paper 2014-42 Ron Alquist, Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios

  Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures the value of storing crude oil over the borrowing period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q4, Q43
• May 13, 2014

  The Canadian Dollar as a Reserve Currency

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Lukasz Pomorski, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Eric Wolfe

  This article provides an overview of the growth of Canadian-dollar-denominated assets in official foreign reserves. Based on International Monetary Fund data and on internal Bank of Canada analysis, we estimate that the total reserve holdings of Canadian-dollar assets increased from negligible levels before 2008 to around US$200 billion in the third quarter of 2013. We discuss the determinants of this increase, as well as its potential impact on Canadian debt markets, for example, lower yields and therefore reduced financing costs for the Government of Canada, and the possible negative impact on market liquidity.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Foreign reserves management, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models

  Staff Working Paper 2014-13 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns, adding to current forward rates, and that (ii) a Markovian model for monthly forward rates cannot generate the pattern of predictability in annual returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12

• Corporate Governance, Product Market Competition and Debt Financing

  Staff Working Paper 2014-5 Teodora Paligorova, Jun Yang

  This paper examines the impact of product market competition and corporate governance on the cost of debt financing and the use of bond covenants. We find that more anti-takeover provisions are associated with a lower cost of debt only in competitive industries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G3, G34

• It Hurts (Stock Prices) When Your Team Is About to Lose a Soccer Match

  Staff Working Paper 2014-2 Michael Ehrmann, David-Jan Jansen

  The end result of major sporting events has been shown to affect next-day stock returns through shifts in investor mood. By studying the soccer matches that led to the elimination of France and Italy from the 2010 FIFA World Cup, we show that mood-related pricing effects can materialize as sporting events unfold.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0, G02, G1, G12, G14, G15

• Regime Switches in the Risk-Return Trade-Off

  Staff Working Paper 2013-51 Eric Ghysels, Pierre Guérin, Massimiliano Marcellino

  This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12

• The Financialization of Food?

  Staff Working Paper 2013-39 Valentina G. Bruno, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Michel A. Robe

  Commodity-equity and cross-commodity return co-movements rose dramatically after the 2008 financial crisis. This development took place following what has been dubbed the “financialization” of commodity markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q1, Q11, Q13

• Which Parametric Model for Conditional Skewness?

  Staff Working Paper 2013-32 Bruno Feunou, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Roméo Tedongap

  This paper addresses an existing gap in the developing literature on conditional skewness. We develop a simple procedure to evaluate parametric conditional skewness models. This procedure is based on regressing the realized skewness measures on model-implied conditional skewness values.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C51, G, G1, G12, G15

• Multivariate Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency and Spanning with a Large Number of Assets and Time-Varying Covariances

  Staff Working Paper 2013-16 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a finite-sample procedure to test for mean-variance efficiency and spanning without imposing any parametric assumptions on the distribution of model disturbances.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C3, C33, G, G1, G11, G12

• Jump-Diffusion Long-Run Risks Models, Variance Risk Premium and Volatility Dynamics

  Staff Working Paper 2013-12 Jianjian Jin

  This paper calibrates a class of jump-diffusion long-run risks (LRR) models to quantify how well they can jointly explain the equity risk premium and the variance risk premium in the U.S. financial markets, and whether they can generate realistic dynamics of risk-neutral and realized volatilities.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G17