G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

• How foreign central banks can affect liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-26 Patrick Aldridge, Jabir Sandhu, Sofia Tchamova

  We find that foreign central banks own a large share of Government of Canada (GoC) bonds and tend to hold their positions for longer than other types of asset managers. This buy-and-hold behaviour could offer benefits. For example, foreign central banks may be less likely than other asset managers to sell bonds and add to strains on market liquidity in periods of turmoil. However, foreign central banks’ buy-and-hold behaviour combined with their minimal lending of GoC bonds in securities-financing markets, as observed in our available data, can potentially lower liquidity because fewer GoC bonds are available for others to transact in secondary markets. Indeed, we find that higher levels of foreign central banks’ GoC bond holdings are related to lower liquidity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Foreign reserves management, International financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F30, F31, G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G12, G15, G2, G23

• Is This Normal? The Cost of Assuming that Derivatives Have Normal Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2024-46 Radoslav Raykov

  Derivatives exchanges often determine collateral requirements, which are fundamental to market safety, with dated risk models assuming normal returns. However, derivatives returns are heavy-tailed, which leads to the systematic under-collection of collateral (margin). This paper uses extreme value theory (EVT) to evaluate the cost of this margin inadequacy to market participants in the event of default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G11, G2, G20

• Decomposing Large Banks’ Systemic Trading Losses

  Staff Working Paper 2024-6 Radoslav Raykov

  Do banks realize simultaneous trading losses because they invest in the same assets, or because different assets are subject to the same macro shocks? This paper decomposes the comovements of bank trading losses into two orthogonal channels: portfolio overlap and common shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G11, G2, G20

• Reaching for yield or resiliency? Explaining the shift in Canadian pension plan portfolios

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-20 Sébastien Betermier, Nicholas Byrne, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Hayden Ford, Jason Ho, Chelsea Mitchell

  “Reach for yield”—This is the commonly heard explanation for why pension plans shift their portfolios toward alternative assets. But we show that the new portfolios also hold more bonds, offer lower average returns and produce smaller and less volatile solvency deficits. These shifts are part of a broader strategy to reduce solvency risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11

• Interbank Asset-Liability Networks with Fire Sale Management

  Staff Working Paper 2020-41 Zachary Feinstein, Grzegorz Halaj

  Raising liquidity when funding is stressed creates pressure on the financial market. Liquidating large quantities of assets depresses their prices and may amplify funding shocks. How do banks weathering a funding crisis contribute to contagion risk?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, C63, C7, C72, G, G0, G01, G1, G11

• Extreme Downside Risk in Asset Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2019-46 Lerby Ergun

  Financial markets can experience sudden and extreme downward movements. Investors are highly concerned about the performance of their assets in such scenarios. Some assets perform badly in a downturn in the market; others have milder reactions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G1, G11, G12

• Borrowing Costs for Government of Canada Treasury Bills

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-28 Jabir Sandhu, Adrian Walton, Jessica Lee

  The cost of borrowing Government of Canada treasury bills (t-bills) in the repurchase (repo) market is mainly explained by the relationship between the parties involved. Some pairs of parties conduct most of their repos for t-bills rather than bonds, and at relatively high borrowing costs. We speculate that these pairs have formed a mutually beneficial service relationship in which one party consistently receives t-bills, while the other receives cash at a relatively cheap rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G11, G12, G2, G20, G21, G23, G3, G32

• Relative Value of Government of Canada Bonds

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-23 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jabir Sandhu, Adrian Walton

  Government of Canada bonds in circulation that promise very similar payoffs can have different prices. We study the reason for these differences. Bonds that trade more often and earn high rental income in the repurchase agreement (repo) market tend to have higher prices. Bonds with longer tenors and times to maturity tend to have lower prices. This contrast between cheap and expensive bonds is important because trading volume and rental income can change rapidly, unlike tenor and time to maturity, which are stable.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G11, G12, G2, G23, G3, G32
• June 7, 2018

  The Bank of Canada’s Financial System Survey

  Financial System Review - June 2018 Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Ian Christensen, Scott Kinnear, Maxime Leboeuf

  This report presents the details of a new semi-annual survey that will improve the Bank of Canada’s surveillance across the financial system and deepen efforts to engage with financial system participants. The survey collects expert opinions on the risks to and resilience of the Canadian financial system as well as on emerging trends and financial innovations. The report presents an overview of the survey and provides high-level results from the spring 2018 survey.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, G, G1, G11, G18, G2, G28, G3, G32

• Information Contagion and Systemic Risk

  Staff Working Paper 2017-29 Co-Pierre Georg, Toni Ahnert

  We examine the effect of ex-post information contagion on the ex-ante level of systemic risk defined as the probability of joint bank default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G2, G21