G01 - Financial Crises

• A Wake-Up-Call Theory of Contagion

  Staff Working Paper 2015-14 Christoph Bertsch, Toni Ahnert

  We propose a novel theory of financial contagion. We study global coordination games of regime change in two regions with an initially uncertain correlation of regional fundamentals.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, F, F3, G, G0, G01

• Securitization under Asymmetric Information over the Business Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2015-9 Martin Kuncl

  This paper studies the efficiency of financial intermediation through securitization in a model with heterogeneous investment projects and asymmetric information about the quality of securitized assets. I show that when retaining part of the risk, the issuer of securitized assets may credibly signal its quality.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G20

• Credit Market Frictions and Sudden Stops

  Staff Working Paper 2014-49 Yuko Imura

  Financial crises in emerging economies in the 1980s and 1990s often entailed abrupt declines in foreign capital inflows, improvements in trade balance, and large declines in output and total factor productivity (TFP).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, G, G0, G01

• Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2014-37 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li

  The objective of this paper is to propose an early warning system that can predict the likelihood of the occurrence of financial stress events within a given period of time. To achieve this goal, the signal extraction approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) is used to monitor the evolution of a number of economic indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a financial stress event.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C4, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, F, F3, F36, F37, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• Removal of the Unwinding Provisions in the Automated Clearing Settlement System: A Risk Assessment

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-4 Nicholas Labelle, Varya Taylor

  A default in the Automated Clearing Settlement System (ACSS) occurs when a Direct Clearer is unable to settle its final obligation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, G, G0, G01, G2, G3

• Capital Flows and Macroprudential Policies - A Multilateral Assessment of Effectiveness and Externalities

  Staff Working Paper 2014-31 John Beirne, Christian Friedrich

  This paper assesses the effectiveness and associated externalities that arise when macroprudential policies (MPPs) are used to manage international capital flows. Using a sample of up to 139 countries, we examine the impact of eight different MPP measures on cross-border bank flows over the period 1999-2009.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F5, G, G0, G01, G1, G11

• Information, Amplification and Financial Crisis

  Staff Working Paper 2014-30 Ali Kakhbod, Toni Ahnert

  We propose a parsimonious model of information choice in a global coordination game of regime change that is used to analyze debt crises, bank runs or currency attacks. A change in the publicly available information alters the uncertainty about the behavior of other investors.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, G, G0, G01
• June 12, 2014

  Stress Testing the Canadian Banking System: A System-Wide Approach

  Financial System Review - June 2014 Kartik Anand, Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Virginie Traclet

  Stress testing is an important tool used by financial authorities and entities around the world to evaluate potential risks to the financial system. Kartik Anand, Guillaume Bédard-Pagé and Virginie Traclet discuss different stress-testing approaches, with emphasis on the innovative and analytically rigorous model developed by the Bank of Canada: the MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF). They also present the stress-test results obtained in the context of the 2013 Canada Financial Sector Assessment Program led by the International Monetary Fund, including the important contributions made by the use of MFRAF in the exercise.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G2, G21

• Rollover Risk, Liquidity and Macroprudential Regulation

  Staff Working Paper 2014-23 Toni Ahnert

  I study rollover risk in the wholesale funding market when intermediaries can hold liquidity ex ante and are subject to fire sales ex post.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G2, G28

• Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2014-21 Tatjana Dahlhaus

  This paper studies the effects of a monetary policy expansion in the United States during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states (“normal” and high financial stress) depends on a financial conditions index.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01