F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

• ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

  Technical Report No. 119 Paul Corrigan, Hélène Desgagnés, José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Wataru Miyamoto, Yang Zhang

  ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Housing, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, E6, E62, E65, F, F4, F40, F41, G, G5, G51

• 2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-12 James Bootsma, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Christopher Hajzler, Argyn Toktamyssov

  This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2020-44 Shutao Cao, Wei Dong

  We examine the macro implications of commodity price shocks in a model with multiple production sectors that are interconnected within a commodity-exporting small open economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, F, F4, F41

• The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-24 Dmitry Matveev, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Rodrigo Sekkel

  The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2020-25 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon

  We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, F, F3, F32, F4, F42, G, G1, G15, G18

• IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity

  Technical Report No. 116 Patrick Blagrave, Claudia Godbout, Justin-Damien Guénette, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov

  We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F0, F01, F3, F32, F4, F47

• Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products

  Staff Working Paper 2019-41 Michael Devereux, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin

  Using highly disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Firm dynamics, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4

• Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains

  Staff Working Paper 2019-19 Yuko Imura

  This paper provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the short-run and long-run effects of various trade-restricting policies in the presence of global value chains and multinational production.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F13, F4, F41

• The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-11 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich

  This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Labor Mobility in a Monetary Union

  Staff Working Paper 2019-15 Daniela Hauser, Martin Seneca

  The optimal currency literature has stressed the importance of labor mobility as a precondition for the success of monetary unions. But only a few studies formally link labor mobility to macroeconomic adjustment and policy. In this paper, we study macroeconomic dynamics and optimal monetary policy in an economy with cyclical labor flows across two distinct regions that share trade links and a common monetary framework.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Labour markets, Monetary policy framework, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4