F1 - Trade

• Decomposing Movements in U.S. Non-Energy Import Market Shares

  Staff Discussion Paper 2015-5 Russell Barnett, Karyne B. Charbonneau

  Country market shares of U.S. non-energy imports have changed considerably since 2002, with varying volatility across three subperiods: pre-crisis (2002–07), crisis (2007–09) and post-crisis (2009–14). In this paper, we analyze market shares for four main trading partners of the United States (Canada, Mexico, China and Japan).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4

• Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces

  Staff Working Paper 2015-28 Farrukh Suvankulov

  A significant body of empirical studies demonstrates sizable national border effects in foreign trade of Canadian provinces throughout the 1980s and 1990s. This paper revisits and expands the scope of the border effects analysis by estimating the border effect in trade with U.S. states as well as countries in the European Union (EU) and the G 20 using more recent data from 2001–10.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F15
• May 14, 2015

  The Slowdown in Global Trade

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Michael Francis, Louis Morel

  Global trade growth has been weak during the period following the 2007–09 financial crisis. This is an important development for Canada, given the Canadian economy's high degree of openness to trade. This article investigates some of the factors behind the slowdown in global trade and finds that the weakness of global demand and its changing composition, increased protectionism and diminishing incentives to expand trade have all played a role. Some of these factors are likely to have only a temporary effect on trade growth, but others could be more long-lasting.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4, F6

• Sluggish Exports in Advanced Economies: How Much Is Due to Demand?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2015-3 Louis Morel

  Exports in advanced economies have been relatively sluggish since 2011, growing at a much slower pace than observed before the global financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4

• What Drives Bank-Intermediated Trade Finance? Evidence from Cross-Country Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2015-8 Jose Maria Serena, Garima Vasishtha

  Empirical work on the underlying causes of the recent dislocations in bank-intermediated trade finance has been limited by the poor availability of hard data. This paper analyzes the key determinants of bank-intermediated trade finance using a novel data set covering ten banking jurisdictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F19

• Why Do Canadian Firms Invest and Operate Abroad? Implications for Canadian Exports

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-7 Martin Coiteux, Patrick Rizzetto, Lena Suchanek, Jane Voll

  Canadian foreign direct investment and sales of Canadian multinational firms’ operations abroad, particularly in the manufacturing industry and in the United States, have accelerated sharply over the past decade.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F2, F21, F23, F4, F41

• Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model

  Technical Report No. 102 Olivier Gervais, Marc-André Gosselin

  The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17

• Multiple Fixed Effects in Binary Response Panel Data Models

  Staff Working Paper 2014-17 Karyne B. Charbonneau

  This paper considers the adaptability of estimation methods for binary response panel data models to multiple fixed effects. It is motivated by the gravity equation used in international trade, where important papers such as Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein (2008) use binary response models with fixed effects for both importing and exporting countries.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C25, F, F1, F14

• Canadian Non-Energy Exports: Past Performance and Future Prospects

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-1 André Binette, Daniel de Munnik, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant

  Canada has continued to lose market share in the United States since the Great Recession, beyond what our bilateral competitiveness measures (relative unit labour costs) would suggest.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

• Endogenous Trade Participation with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through

  Staff Working Paper 2013-30 Yuko Imura

  This paper investigates the implications of endogenous trade participation for international business cycles, trade flow dynamics and exchange rate pass-through when price adjustments are staggered across firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F4, F44