F1 - Trade

• Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities

  Staff Working Paper 2017-41 Matthieu Bussière, Guillaume Gaulier, Walter Steingress

  This paper contributes to the debate on the magnitude of exchange rate elasticities by providing a set of price and quantity elasticities for 51 advanced and emerging-market economies. Specifically, for each of these countries we report the elasticity of trade prices and trade quantities on both the export and on the import sides, as well as the reaction of the trade balance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, F, F1, F14, F3, F31, F33, F4, F41

• The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada’s National Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2017-18 Patrick Alexander, Ian Keay

  In this paper, we study the impact of Canada’s adoption of protectionist trade policy in 1879 on Canadian welfare. Under the National Policy the Canadian average weighted tariff increased from 14% to 21%. The conventional view is that this was a distortionary policy that negatively affected Canadian welfare.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F4, F42, F6, F60, N, N7, N71

• Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander

  Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F14, F6, F60

• Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-2 André Binette, Tony Chernis, Daniel de Munnik

  Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43

• An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx

  We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• Producer Heterogeneity, Value-Added, and International Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2016-54 Patrick Alexander

  Standard new trade models depict producers as heterogeneous in total factor productivity. In this paper, I adapt the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model of international trade to incorporate tradable intermediate goods and producer heterogeneity in value-added productivity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Productivity, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F14

• The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-20 Stephen S. Poloz

  In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, F, F1, F4, F41, F6

• A New Measure of the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-1 Russell Barnett, Karyne B. Charbonneau, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle

  Canada’s international competitiveness has received increasing attention in recent years as exports have fallen short of expectations and Canada has lost market share. This paper asks whether the Bank of Canada’s current effective exchange rate measure, the CERI, is still an accurate measure of Canada’s international competitiveness.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F3, F31

• Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries

  Staff Working Paper 2015-45 Gabriel Bruneau, Kevin Moran

  We estimate the link between exchange rate fluctuations and the labour input of Canadian manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand, and the econometric strategy employs a panel two-step approach for cointegrating regressions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, F, F1, F14, F16, F3, F31, F4, F41, J, J2, J23

• An Update - Canadian Non-Energy Exports: Past Performance and Future Prospects

  Staff Discussion Paper 2015-10 André Binette, Daniel de Munnik, Julie Melanson

  In light of the fact that Canada was continuing to lose market share in the United States, Binette, de Munnik and Gouin-Bonenfant (2014) studied 31 Canadian non-energy export (NEX) categories to assess their individual performance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43