E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
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Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion
Fluctuations in the prices of various natural resource products are of concern in both policy and business circles; hence, it is important to develop accurate price forecasts. -
Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty
How can policy-makers avoid large policy errors when they are uncertain about the true model of the economy? -
The Welfare Implications of Inflation versus Price-Level Targeting in a Two-Sector, Small Open Economy
The authors analyze the welfare implications of simple monetary policy rules in the context of an estimated model of a small open economy for Canada with traded and non-traded goods, and with sticky prices and wages. -
The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States
In the United States, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of promoting stable inflation and maximum employment. Since the Fed directly controls only one instrument - the federal funds rate - the authors argue that the Fed's priorities continuously alternate between inflation and economic activity. -
An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures
The author provides a statistical evaluation of various measures of core inflation for Canada. -
Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model with a Financial Accelerator
The authors estimate a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a financial accelerator, à la Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999), to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks. -
Regime Shifts in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Money in Canada
Financial innovations and the removal of the reserve requirements in the early 1990s have made the distinction between demand and notice deposits arbitrary. -
Are Currency Crises Low-State Equilibria? An Empirical, Three-Interest-Rate Model
Suppose that the dynamics of the macroeconomy were given by (partly) random fluctuations between two equilibria: "good" and "bad." -
Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model
The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada.