E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Combining Canadian Interest-Rate Forecasts

  Staff Working Paper 2008-34 David Bolder, Yuliya Romanyuk

  Model risk is a constant danger for financial economists using interest-rate forecasts for the purposes of monetary policy analysis, portfolio allocations, or risk-management decisions. Use of multiple models does not necessarily solve the problem as it greatly increases the work required and still leaves the question "which model forecast should one use?"

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E4, E43, E47

• Aggregate and Welfare Effects of Redistribution of Wealth Under Inflation and Price-Level Targeting

  Staff Working Paper 2008-31 Césaire Meh, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, Yaz Terajima

  Since the work of Doepke and Schneider (2006a) and Meh and Terajima (2008), we know that inflation causes major redistribution of wealth – between households and the government, between nationals and foreigners, and between households within the same country.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E4, E44, E5, E52, E6, E63

• Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads

  Staff Working Paper 2008-29 Jun Yang

  We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of corporate spreads using a no-arbitrage technique. Structural shocks are identified by a New-Keynesian model. Treasury bonds are priced in an affine model with time-varying risk premia.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G1, G12

• The Welfare Implications of Fiscal Dominance

  Staff Working Paper 2008-28 Carlos De Resende, Nooman Rebei

  This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policy in a DSGE model with sticky prices and non-zero trend inflation. We characterize the fiscal and monetary policies by a rule whereby a given fraction k of the government debt must be backed by the discounted value of current and future primary surpluses.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E42, E5, E50, E6, E63

• Are Bygones not Bygones? Modeling Price Level Targeting with an Escape Clause and Lessons from the Gold Standard

  Staff Working Paper 2008-27 Paul Masson, Malik Shukayev

  Like the gold standard, price level targeting (PT) involves not letting past deviations of inflation be bygones; both regimes return the price level (or price of gold) to its target. The experience of suspension of the gold standard in World War I, resumption in the 1920s (for some countries at a different parity), and final abandonment is reviewed.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52

• Merchant Acceptance, Costs, and Perceptions of Retail Payments: A Canadian Survey

  Staff Discussion Paper 2008-12 Carlos Arango, Varya Taylor

  Using the results of a survey on accepted means of payment, the authors examine merchant preferences and perceptions of retail payment reliability, risk, and costs; the share of each type of payment method over total sales; and the costs involved in accepting payments.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, L, L2

• Price-Level versus Inflation Targeting with Financial Market Imperfections

  Staff Working Paper 2008-26 Francisco Covas, Yahong Zhang

  This paper compares price-level-path targeting (PT) with inflation targeting (IT) in a sticky-price, dynamic, general equilibrium model augmented with imperfections in both the debt and equity markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E50

• Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads?

  Staff Working Paper 2008-25 Philipp Maier, Garima Vasishtha

  Since 2002, spreads on emerging market sovereign debt have fallen to historical lows. Given the close links between sovereign spreads, capital flows to emerging markets, and economic growth, understanding the factors driving these spreads is very important. We address this issue in two stages.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F34, G, G1, G12, G15

• A Structural VAR Approach to Core Inflation in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2008-10 Sylvain Martel

  The author constructs a measure of core inflation using a structural vector autoregression containing oil-price growth, output growth, and inflation. This "macro-founded" measure of inflation forecasts total inflation at least as well as other, atheoretical measures.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E31

• The Implementation of Monetary Policy in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2008-9 Walter Engert, Toni Gravelle, Donna Howard

  The authors present a detailed discussion of the Bank of Canada's framework for the implementation of monetary policy. As background, they provide a brief overview of the financial system in Canada, including a discussion of the financial services industry and the money market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21