E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Global Inflation Dynamics in the Post-Crisis Period: What Explains the Twin Puzzle?

  Staff Working Paper 2014-36 Christian Friedrich

  Inflation dynamics in advanced countries have produced two consecutive puzzles during the years after the global financial crisis. The first puzzle emerged when inflation rates over the period 2009-11 were consistently higher than expected, although economic slack in advanced countries reached its highest level in recent history.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, F, F4, F41

• Search Frictions, Financial Frictions and Labour Market Fluctuations in Emerging Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2014-35 Sumru Altug, Serdar Kabaca

  This paper examines the role of the extensive and intensive margins of labour input in the context of a business cycle model with a financial friction. We document significant variation in the hours worked per worker for many emerging-market economies. Both employment and hours worked per worker are positively correlated with each other and with output.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Development economics, Interest rates, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F4, F41, J, J4, J40

• Housework and Fiscal Expansions

  Staff Working Paper 2014-34 Stefano Gnocchi, Daniela Hauser, Evi Pappa

  We build an otherwise-standard business cycle model with housework, calibrated consistently with data on time use, in order to discipline consumption-hours complementarity and relate its strength to the size of fiscal multipliers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52, E6, E62

• Commodity Price Co-Movement and Global Economic Activity

  Staff Working Paper 2014-32 Ron Alquist, Olivier Coibion

  Guided by a macroeconomic model in which non-energy commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, F, F4

• Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model

  Technical Report No. 102 Olivier Gervais, Marc-André Gosselin

  The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17

• Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-3 Maxime Leboeuf, Louis Morel

  In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

• Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations

  Staff Working Paper 2014-28 Michael Ehrmann, Damjan Pfajfar, Emiliano Santoro

  This paper studies the formation of consumers’ inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey. It shows that beyond the well-established socio-economic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or education, other characteristics such as the households’ financial situation and their purchasing attitudes also matter.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31

• Retail Payment Innovations and Cash Usage: Accounting for Attrition Using Refreshment Samples

  Staff Working Paper 2014-27 Heng Chen, Marie-Hélène Felt, Kim Huynh

  We exploit the panel dimension of the Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) data to estimate the impact of retail payment innovations on cash usage. We estimate a semiparametric panel data model that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity and allows for general forms of non-random attrition.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, E, E4, E41

• Improving Overnight Loan Identification in Payments Systems

  Staff Working Paper 2014-25 Mark Rempel

  Information on the allocation and pricing of over-the-counter (OTC) markets is scarce. Furfine (1999) pioneered an algorithm that provides transaction-level data on the OTC interbank lending market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C53, E, E4, E42, E44, G, G1, G10

• Understanding the Cash Demand Puzzle

  Staff Working Paper 2014-22 Janet Hua Jiang, Enchuan Shao

  We develop a model to explain a puzzling trend in cash demand in recent years: the value of bank notes in circulation as a percentage of GDP has remained stable despite decreasing cash usage at points of sale owing to competition from alternative means of payment such as credit cards.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Credit and credit aggregates, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E5, E51