E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Productive Misallocation and International Transmission of Credit Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2015-19 Yuko Imura, Julia Thomas

  We develop an asymmetric, two-country equilibrium business cycle model to study the role of international trade in transmitting and propagating the real effects of global financial shocks. Our model predicts that a recession in a large economy considerably alters a recession in its smaller trade partner, with distinct investment dynamics driving the transmission.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F41, F44

• Government and Private E-Money-Like Systems: Federal Reserve Notes and National Bank Notes

  Staff Working Paper 2015-18 Warren E. Weber

  The period from 1914 to 1935 in the United States is unique in that it was the only time that both privately-issued bank notes (national bank notes) and central bank-issued bank notes (Federal Reserve notes) were simultaneously in circulation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58

• Testing for the Diffusion Matrix in a Continuous-Time Markov Process Model with Applications to the Term Structure of Interest Rates

  Staff Working Paper 2015-17 Fuchun Li

  The author proposes a test for the parametric specification of each component in the diffusion matrix of a d-dimensional diffusion process. Overall, d (d-1)/2 test statistics are constructed for the off-diagonal components, while d test statistics are constructed for the main diagonal components.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, E, E1, E17, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G2, G20

• Exploring Differences in Household Debt Across Euro Area Countries and the United States

  Staff Working Paper 2015-16 Dimitris Christelis, Michael Ehrmann, Dimitris Georgarakos

  We use internationally comparable household-level data for ten euro area economies and the United States to investigate cross-country differences in debt holdings and the potential of debt overhang.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, G, G1, G11
• May 14, 2015

  Inflation Dynamics in the Post-Crisis Period

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Christian Friedrich, Marc-André Gosselin

  Inflation rates in advanced economies experienced two consecutive puzzles during the period following the global financial crisis—unexpectedly high inflation from the end of 2009 to 2011 and unexpectedly low inflation from 2012 to the middle of 2014. We investigate these developments in two ways. First, we show that accounting for inflation expectations by households explains a significant share of the inflation puzzles at the international level. Second, we find that, for Canada, elevated competition in the retail sector is also important for understanding inflation dynamics in the post-crisis period.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, F, F4, F41
• May 14, 2015

  Improving the Foundation of Canada’s Payments System

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Lana Embree, Paul Miller

  The Canadian payments environment has evolved with enhancements in technology, changes in user expectations and new regulatory standards. In response, the existing regulatory framework and core payments infrastructure are being enhanced. This article describes several revisions to the governance and regulation of the payments system as well as plans to update the core payments infrastructure. These initiatives will position the Canadian payments system to more effectively support a modern and vibrant economy by serving the payments needs of Canadians safely and efficiently as the payments industry continues to evolve.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28
• May 14, 2015

  The “Bank” at the Bank of Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Thérèse Couture, Christian Bélisle

  In this article, we describe the various types of banking services (payments, settlement and safekeeping) that the Bank of Canada provides to different types of clients (the Government of Canada, financial market infrastructures, financial institutions, foreign central banks and the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation). We also explain the reasons the Bank provides these services and how this role supports its core mandates, in particular financial stability. Finally, we explore the factors driving the growth and evolution in the provision of these banking services.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial services, Foreign reserves management, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, G, G2, G20
• May 14, 2015

  The Use of Cash in Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Ben Fung, Kim Huynh, Gerald Stuber

  The Bank of Canada’s 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey indicates that the share of cash in the overall number of retail transactions has continued to decrease, mainly because of increased use of contactless credit cards. The share of cash in the total value of retail transactions was virtually unchanged from 2009 to 2013. In particular, the value share of cash transactions above $50 increased. Automated banking machines (ABMs), still the major source of cash for Canadians, were used less often in 2013 than in 2009. Cash use in Canada is broadly similar to that in Australia and the United States.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21, L, L8, L81

• Euro Area Government Bonds—Integration and Fragmentation During the Sovereign Debt Crisis

  Staff Working Paper 2015-13 Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher

  The paper analyzes the integration of euro area sovereign bond markets during the European sovereign debt crisis. It tests for contagion (i.e., an intensification in the transmission of shocks across countries), fragmentation (a reduction in spillovers) and flight-to-quality patterns, exploiting the heteroskedasticity of intraday changes in bond yields for identification.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E5, F, F3, G, G1, G15

• 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey Results

  Staff Discussion Paper 2015-4 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Rallye Shen

  As the sole issuer of bank notes, the Bank of Canada conducts methods-of-payment (MOP) surveys to obtain a detailed and representative snapshot of Canadian payment choices, with a focus on cash usage.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E4