E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Characterizing Breadth in Canadian Economic Activity

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-1 Taylor Webley, Carla Valerio, Maureen MacIsaac

  Real growth in gross domestic product tends to be meaningfully higher when a large share of industries and demand components are growing—that is, when growth is broad across many fronts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

• Managing GDP Tail Risk

  Staff Working Paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): D, D8, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01

• Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound

  Staff Working Paper 2020-2 Jasmina Arifovic, Alex Grimaud, Isabelle Salle, Gauthier Vermandel

  This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, E, E3, E32, E5, E52

• Contagion in Dealer Networks

  Staff Working Paper 2020-1 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Adrian Walton

  Dealers connect investors who want to buy or sell securities in financial markets. Over time, dealers and investors form trading networks to save time and resources. An emerging field of research investigates how networks form.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G1, G2, G21, L, L1, L14

• Monetary Policy and Government Debt Dynamics Without Commitment

  Staff Working Paper 2019-52 Dmitry Matveev

  I show that maturity considerations affect the optimal conduct of monetary and fiscal policy during a period of government debt reduction. I consider a New Keynesian model and study a dynamic game of monetary and fiscal policy authorities without commitment, characterizing the incentives that drive the choice of interest rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63

• On the Evolution of Multiple Jobholding in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2019-49 Olena Kostyshyna, Etienne Lalé

  The number of workers who hold more than one job (a.k.a. multiple jobholders) has increased recently in Canada. While this seems to echo the view that non-standard work arrangements are becoming pervasive, the increase has in fact been trivial compared with the long-run rise of multiple jobholding that has occurred since the mid-1970s.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J6, J60

• Furor over the Fed : Presidential Tweets and Central Bank Independence

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-33 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev

  We illustrate how market data can be informative about the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Federal funds futures are private contracts that reflect investor’s expectations about monetary policy decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58

• Model Uncertainty and Wealth Distribution

  Staff Working Paper 2019-48 Edouard Djeutem, Shaofeng Xu

  This paper studies the implications of model uncertainty for wealth distribution in a tractable general equilibrium model with a borrowing constraint and robustness à la Hansen and Sargent (2008). Households confront model uncertainty about the process driving the return of the risky asset, and they choose robust policies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, E, E2

• Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt

  Staff Discussion Paper 2019-12 Stephen S. Poloz

  This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E6, E63, F, F0, F02, F1, F15, F5, F53, F6, H, O, O1, O11, O3, O33

• 2018 Merchant Acceptance Survey

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-31 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson

  In 2015, the Bank of Canada surveyed merchants and found that cash was nearly universally accepted (Fung, Huynh and Kosse 2017). Since 2015, retail payments in Canada have become increasingly digitalized, as many Canadians have adopted digital payment innovations like contactless cards and Interac e-Transfer.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2