E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-3 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, James (Jim) C. MacGee, Luis Uzeda

  The rise in inflation in 2021–22 sparked a growing literature and debate over the causes of the surge as well as the near- and medium-term path for inflation. This review offers three key messages.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58

• Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective

  Staff Working Paper 2023-5 Paul Beaudry, Katya Kartashova, Césaire Meh

  Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62, G, G5, G51, H, H6

• Summaries of Central Bank Policy Deliberations: A Canadian Context

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-2 Monica Jain, Walter Muiruri, Jonathan Witmer, Sharon Kozicki, Jeremy Harrison

  This paper provides the context, rationale and key considerations that informed the Bank of Canada’s decision to publish a summary of monetary policy deliberations. It includes an analysis of how other central banks disclose minutes and summaries of their monetary policy deliberations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E5, E58

• Macroeconomic Disasters and Consumption Smoothing: International Evidence from Historical Data

  Staff Working Paper 2023-4 Lorenzo Pozzi, Barbara Sadaba

  Does consumption smoothing fundamentally decrease during macroeconomic disasters? This paper uses a large historical dataset (1870–2016) for 16 industrial economies to show that during macroeconomic disasters (e.g., wars, pandemics, depressions) aggregate consumption and income are significantly less decoupled than during normal times.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, E, E2, E21

• The 2021–22 Merchant Acceptance Survey Pilot Study

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-1 Angelika Welte, Joy Wu

  The rise in digital payment innovations has spurred a discussion about the future of cash at the point of sale. The Bank conducted the 2021–22 Merchant Acceptance Survey Pilot Study to study trends in merchant cash acceptance and monitor conditions for the potential issuance of a central bank digital currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2

• Simulating Intraday Transactions in the Canadian Retail Batch System

  Staff Working Paper 2023-1 Nellie Zhang

  This paper proposes a unique approach to simulate intraday transactions in the Canadian retail payments batch system when such transactions are unobtainable. The simulation procedure has potential for helping with data-deficient problems where only high-level aggregate information is available.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E4, E42, E5, E58

• 2021 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-23 Christopher Henry, Matthew Shimoda, Julia Zhu

  We present results from the 2021 Methods-of-Payment Survey, including updated payment shares. We highlight long-term trends and provide additional context for results with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41

• Improving the Efficiency of Payments Systems Using Quantum Computing

  Staff Working Paper 2022-53 Christopher McMahon, Donald McGillivray, Ajit Desai, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Jean-Paul Lam, Thomas Lo, Danica Marsden, Vladimir Skavysh

  We develop an algorithm and run it on a hybrid quantum annealing solver to find an ordering of payments that reduces the amount of system liquidity necessary without substantially increasing payment delays.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58

• Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real?

  Staff Working Paper 2022-52 Johan Brannlund, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Reinhard Ellwanger

  Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, Q, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43

• Financial Constraints and Corporate Investment in China

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-22 Kun Mo, Michel Soudan

  Financial constraints deter firms from pursuing optimal investment plans. In China, we find privately owned firms face greater financial constraints than state-owned enterprises (SOEs). This can be explained by our finding that lenders appear less concerned about the credit risk of SOEs, which causes distortions in the allocation of credit.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, G, G1, G3