E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
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Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023
We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment. -
How Banks Create Gridlock to Save Liquidity in Canada's Large Value Payment System
We show how participants in Canada’s new high-value payment system save liquidity by exploiting the new gridlock resolution arrangement. The findings have important implications for the design of these systems and shed light on financial institutions’ liquidity preference. -
A Review of the Bank of Canada’s Support of Key Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis
The COVID-19 pandemic placed unprecedented strain on the global financial system. We describe how the Bank of Canada responded to the rapidly deteriorating liquidity in core Canadian fixed-income markets. -
From LVTS to Lynx: Quantitative Assessment of Payment System Transition
We quantitatively assess the changes in participants’ payment behaviour from modernizing Canada's high-value payments system to Lynx. Our analysis suggests that Lynx's liquidity-saving mechanism encourages liquidity pooling and early payments submission, resulting in improved efficiency for participants but with slightly increased payment delays. -
Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media
News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media. -
The Impact of Unemployment Insurance and Unsecured Credit on Business Cycles
This paper studies how unsecured consumer credit impacts the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) policies smooth aggregate consumption fluctuations over the business cycle. Using a general equilibrium real business cycle model, I find that unsecured credit amplifies the extent to which UI smooths cyclical consumption fluctuations. -
Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share
Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States. -
Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages
We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages. -
What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal
We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters.