E52 - Monetary Policy

• Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?

  Staff Working Paper 2016-19 Sami Alpanda, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Should monetary policy lean against housing market booms? We approach this question using a small-scale, regime-switching New Keynesian model, where housing market crashes arrive with a logit probability that depends on the level of household debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G0, G01

• Understanding Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2016-7 Simon Richards, Matthieu Verstraete

  Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C1, C2, C25, D, D2, D21, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58

• Monetary Commitment and the Level of Public Debt

  Staff Working Paper 2016-3 Stefano Gnocchi, Luisa Lambertini

  We analyze the interaction between committed monetary policy and discretionary fiscal policy in a model with public debt, endogenous government expenditures, distortive taxation and nominal rigidities.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52

• The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-1 Julien Champagne, Nikita Perevalov, Hope Pioro, Dany Brouillette, Andrew Agopsowicz

  In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E5, E52, J, J2, Q, Q0, Q00
• November 19, 2015

  A Survey of Consumer Expectations for Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Marc-André Gosselin, Mikael Khan

  The Bank of Canada recently launched a quarterly survey to measure the expectations of Canadian households: the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). The data collected provide comprehensive information about consumer expectations for and uncertainty about inflation, the labour market and household finance. This article describes the CSCE and illustrates its potential to offer rich information about Canadian consumers for researchers and policy-makers.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, J, J0
• November 19, 2015

  Measuring Durable Goods and Housing Prices in the CPI: An Empirical Assessment

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Patrick Sabourin, Pierre Duguay

  While the CPI is the most commonly used measure to track inflation, it is not fully consistent with a true cost-of-living index (COLI). Although the official treatment of durable goods and housing in the CPI represents an acceptable compromise in the current environment of low and stable inflation, Sabourin and Duguay suggest that it would be worthwhile to consider treating housing and durables in the same way and bringing the actual CPI closer to a COLI. This could be accomplished by employing an enhanced user-cost approach to calculate the imputed cost of the services provided by the use of durable goods or housing.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
• November 19, 2015

  The Effect of Regulatory Changes on Monetary Policy Implementation Frameworks

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Meyer Aaron, Annick Demers, Sean Durr

  This article provides an analysis of some recent banking regulatory initiatives that are likely to influence the activities of financial intermediaries and the effectiveness of central bank monetary policy implementation frameworks. Although the effects of individual regulations can be anticipated in most cases, the combined regulatory impact is not yet clear. Central banks should, however, be able to accommodate the effects of the emerging regulatory environment within their existing policy implementation frameworks.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, L, L5, L50

• Reputational Risk Management in Central Banks

  Staff Discussion Paper 2015-16 Jill Vardy

  This paper discusses reputational risk in the context of central banking and explains why it matters to central banks. It begins with a general discussion of reputational risk within the broader framework of risk management.

  Content Type(s): Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credibility, International topics, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58

• Forward Guidance at the Effective Lower Bound: International Experience

  Staff Discussion Paper 2015-15 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Lori Rennison

  Forward guidance is one of the policy tools that a central bank can implement if it seeks to provide additional monetary stimulus when it is operating at the effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates. It became more widely used during and after the global financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6

• Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound

  Staff Discussion Paper 2015-14 Abeer Reza, Eric Santor, Lena Suchanek

  This paper summarizes the international evidence on the performance of quantitative easing (QE) as a monetary policy tool when conventional policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB). A large body of evidence suggests that expanding the central bank’s balance sheet through large-scale asset purchases can provide effective stimulus under the ELB.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65, N, N1, N10