E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

• Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Conditions

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-4 Thibaut Duprey

  Severe disruptions in the financial markets, as observed during the 2008 global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic, can impair the stability of the entire financial system and worsen macroeconomic downturns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01

• The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Markets: Evidence from Oil Inventory News

  Staff Working Paper 2020-8 Ron Alquist, Reinhard Ellwanger, Jianjian Jin

  We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G14, G15, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

• Managing GDP Tail Risk

  Staff Working Paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): D, D8, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01

• Furor over the Fed : Presidential Tweets and Central Bank Independence

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-33 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev

  We illustrate how market data can be informative about the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Federal funds futures are private contracts that reflect investor’s expectations about monetary policy decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58

• What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions?

  Staff Working Paper 2019-38 Jelena Zivanovic

  I use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with sign restrictions to provide conditional evidence on the behavior of the US external finance premium (EFP). The results indicate that the excess bond premium, a proxy for the EFP, reacts countercyclically to supply and monetary policy shocks and procyclically to demand shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44

• Financial Frictions, Durable Goods and Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2019-31 Ugochi Emenogu, Leo Michelis

  Financial frictions affect how much consumers spend on durable and non-durable goods. Borrowers can face both loan-to-value (LTV) constraints and payment-to-income (PTI) constraints.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52

• Bridging Canadian Business Lending and Market-Based Risk Measures

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-26 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Maxime Leboeuf

  Lending to business is central to economic growth because it supports investment by firms. Knowing how market participants view risk in the financial system can give the Bank of Canada information about future growth in business loans. In this note, we look at three market-based risk measures and find that sudden increases in the perception of risk in the Canadian banking system are associated with a weaker outlook for business loans and real gross domestic product.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G1, G12

• Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches

  Staff Working Paper 2019-25 Jonathan Swarbrick

  We propose a macroeconomic model in which adverse selection in investment drives the amplification of macroeconomic fluctuations, in line with prominent roles played by the credit crunch and collapse of the asset-backed security market in the financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Financial stability, Interest rates, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01

• The Effects of Inflation Targeting for Financial Development

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-21 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Amy (Qijia) Li

  The adoption of inflation targeting (IT) by central banks leads to an increase of 10 to 20 percent in measures of financial development, with a lag. We also find evidence that the financial sector benefits of IT adoption were higher for early-adopting central banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Inflation targets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E58

• Assessing the Resilience of the Canadian Banking System

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-16 Charles Gaa, Xuezhi Liu, Cameron MacDonald, Xiangjin Shen

  The stability of the Canadian financial system, as well as its ability to support the Canadian economy, depends on the ability of financial institutions to absorb and manage major shocks. This is especially true for large banks, which perform services essential to the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21