E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

• Estimated DGE Models and Forecasting Accuracy: A Preliminary Investigation with Canadian Data

  Staff Working Paper 2002-18 Kevin Moran, Veronika Dolar

  This paper applies the hybrid dynamic general-equilibrium, vector autoregressive (DGE-VAR) model developed by Ireland (1999) to Canadian time series.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37

• Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2002-15 Zhiwei Zhang

  This paper examines the predictive power of credit spreads from the corporate bond market. The high-yield bond spread and investment-grade spread can explain 68 per cent and 42 per cent of output variations one year ahead, while the term spread based on government debts can explain only 12 per cent of them.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, G, G1

• La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2002-10 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Simon van Norden

  In this paper, we measure, with Canadian data, the scope of the revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap generated with several univariate and multivariate techniques. We also make an empirical evaluation of the usefulness of the output gap estimates for predicting inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

• An Estimated Canadian DSGE Model with Nominal and Real Rigidities

  Staff Working Paper 2001-26 Ali Dib

  This paper develops a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium (DGSE) model for the Canadian economy and evaluates the real effects of monetary policy shocks. To generate high and persistent real effects, the model combines nominal frictions in the form of costly price adjustment with real rigidities modelled as convex costs of adjusting capital and employment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32

• New Phillips Curve with Alternative Marginal Cost Measures for Canada, the United States, and the Euro Area

  Staff Working Paper 2001-25 Edith Gagnon, Hashmat Khan

  Recent research on the new Phillips curve (NPC) (e.g., Galí, Gertler, and López-Salido 2001a) gives marginal cost an important role in capturing pressures on inflation. In this paper we assess the case for using alternative measures of marginal cost to improve the empirical fit of the NPC.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• On Inflation and the Persistence of Shocks to Output

  Staff Working Paper 2001-22 Maral Kichian, Richard Luger

  This paper empirically investigates the possibility that the effects of shocks to output depend on the level of inflation. The analysis extends Elwood's (1998) framework by incorporating in the model an inflation-threshold process that can potentially influence the stochastic properties of output.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, E58

• A Consistent Bootstrap Test for Conditional Density Functions with Time-Dependent Data

  Staff Working Paper 2001-21 Fuchun Li, Greg Tkacz

  This paper describes a new test for evaluating conditional density functions that remains valid when the data are time-dependent and that is therefore applicable to forecasting problems. We show that the test statistic is asymptotically distributed standard normal under the null hypothesis, and diverges to infinity when the null hypothesis is false.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, E, E3, E37

• Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2001-18 Marc-André Gosselin, Greg Tkacz

  This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37

• Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level

  Staff Working Paper 2001-16 Gerald Stuber

  This paper surveys recent developments in the theoretical and empirical literature on the economic implications of uncertainty about the longer-term outlook for inflation. In particular, the linkages between inflation, long-run inflation uncertainty, and aggregate economic activity in industrial economies have become considerably better understood during the past decade.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E31, E4, E44

• Predetermined Prices and the Persistent Effects of Money on Output

  Staff Working Paper 2001-13 Michael Devereux, James Yetman

  This paper illustrates a model of predetermined pricing, where firms set a fixed schedule of nominal prices at the time of price readjustment, based on the work of Fischer (1977). This type of price-setting specification cannot produce any excess persistence in a fixed-duration model of staggered prices, but we show that with a probabilistic model of price adjustment, as in Calvo (1983), a predetermined pricing specification can produce excess persistence.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30