E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

• The New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve: An Assessment of Competing Specifications for the United States

  Staff Working Paper 2004-31 David Dupuis

  Inflation forecasting is fundamental to monetary policy. In practice, however, economists are faced with competing goals: accuracy and theoretical consistency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation

  Staff Working Paper 2004-21 Jeannine Bailliu, Eiji Fujii

  This paper investigates the question of whether a transition to a low-inflation environment, induced by a shift in monetary policy, results in a decline in the degree of pass-through of exchange rate movements to consumer prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E42, F, F3, F31

• The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey: An Assessment

  Staff Working Paper 2004-15 Monica Martin, Cristiano Papile

  Since the autumn of 1997, the Bank of Canada's regional offices (located in Halifax, Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver) have conducted consultations with businesses across Canada on a quarterly basis. These consultations are now referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E66

• Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves Using Exact Methods

  Staff Working Paper 2004-11 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian

  The authors use simple new finite-sample methods to test the empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) equation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31

• Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General-Equilibrium Framework

  Staff Working Paper 2004-9 Jean-Paul Lam, Greg Tkacz

  In an era when the primary policy instrument is the level of the short-term interest rate, a comparison of that rate with some equilibrium rate can be a useful guide for policy and a convenient method to measure the stance of monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37

• A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2004-4 Stephen Murchison, Andrew Rennison, Zhenhua Zhu

  The authors develop a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model in an attempt to understand the dynamic relationships in Canadian macroeconomic data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E5, E52

• Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine

  Staff Working Paper 2004-3 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde

  In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47

• Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output

  Staff Working Paper 2003-44 Francisco Barillas, Christoph Schleicher

  The authors examine evidence of long- and short-run co-movement in Canadian sectoral output data. Their framework builds on a vector-error-correction representation that allows them to test for and compute full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of models with codependent cycle restrictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C2, C22, C3, C32, E, E3, E32

• Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?

  Staff Working Paper 2003-43 Hafedh Bouakez, Nooman Rebei

  Recent empirical evidence suggests that private consumption is crowded-in by government spending. This outcome violates existing macroeconomic theory, according to which the negative wealth effect brought about by a rise in public expenditure should decrease consumption.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62

• The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting

  Staff Working Paper 2003-32 Frédérick Demers

  Phillips curves are generally estimated under the assumption of linearity and parameter constancy. Linear models of inflation, however, have recently been criticized for their poor forecasting performance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31