E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Non-Zero Trend Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2006-34 Robert Amano, Steve Ambler, Nooman Rebei

  The authors study the macroeconomic effects of non-zero trend inflation in a simple dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with sticky prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32

• Are Average Growth Rate and Volatility Related?

  Staff Working Paper 2006-24 Partha Chatterjee, Malik Shukayev

  The empirical relationship between the average growth rate and the volatility of growth rates, both over time and across countries, has important policy implications, which depend critically on the sign of the relationship.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

• Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies

  Staff Working Paper 2006-22 Anna Piretti, Charles St-Arnaud

  The authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E3, E37

• Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion

  Staff Working Paper 2006-14 Jean-Thomas Bernard, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian, Sebastien McMahon

  Fluctuations in the prices of various natural resource products are of concern in both policy and business circles; hence, it is important to develop accurate price forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37

• The Welfare Implications of Inflation versus Price-Level Targeting in a Two-Sector, Small Open Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2006-12 Eva Ortega, Nooman Rebei

  The authors analyze the welfare implications of simple monetary policy rules in the context of an estimated model of a small open economy for Canada with traded and non-traded goods, and with sticky prices and wages.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52

• An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures

  Staff Working Paper 2006-10 Jamie Armour

  The author provides a statistical evaluation of various measures of core inflation for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model with a Financial Accelerator

  Staff Working Paper 2006-9 Ian Christensen, Ali Dib

  The authors estimate a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a financial accelerator, à la Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999), to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44

• Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model

  Staff Working Paper 2006-4 Ali Dib, Mohamed Gammoudi, Kevin Moran

  The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E3, E32, E37

• Structural Change in Covariance and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2006-2 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian

  The authors address empirically the implications of structural breaks in the variance-covariance matrix of inflation and import prices for changes in pass-through.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31, F, F3, F31, F4, F40

• Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?

  Staff Working Paper 2005-44 Frédérick Demers, Annie De Champlain

  The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, E37