E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
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Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion
Fluctuations in the prices of various natural resource products are of concern in both policy and business circles; hence, it is important to develop accurate price forecasts. -
The Welfare Implications of Inflation versus Price-Level Targeting in a Two-Sector, Small Open Economy
The authors analyze the welfare implications of simple monetary policy rules in the context of an estimated model of a small open economy for Canada with traded and non-traded goods, and with sticky prices and wages. -
An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures
The author provides a statistical evaluation of various measures of core inflation for Canada. -
Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model with a Financial Accelerator
The authors estimate a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a financial accelerator, à la Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999), to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks. -
Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model
The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada. -
Structural Change in Covariance and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Canada
The authors address empirically the implications of structural breaks in the variance-covariance matrix of inflation and import prices for changes in pass-through. -
Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?
The authors investigate the behaviour of core inflation in Canada to analyze three key issues: (i) homogeneity in the response of various price indexes to demand or real exchange rate shocks relative to the response of aggregate core inflation; (ii) whether using disaggregate data helps to improve the forecast of core inflation; and (iii) whether using monthly data helps to improve quarterly forecasts. -
The 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program in Retrospect
The author provides an overview of the 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program (AIP), in a background document prepared for a seminar organized by the Bank of Canada to mark the AIP's 30th anniversary. -
Measurement Bias in the Canadian Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index (CPI) is the most commonly used measure of inflation in Canada.