E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

• The Behaviour of Consumer Prices Across Provinces

  Staff Discussion Paper 2011-2 Gordon Wilkinson

  Measures of core inflation enable a central bank to distinguish price movements that are transitory and generated by non-monetary events from those that are more permanent and related to prior monetary policy decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• Financial Factors and Labour Market Fluctuations

  Staff Working Paper 2011-12 Yahong Zhang

  What are the effects of financial market imperfections on unemployment and vacancies? Since standard DSGE models do not typically model unemployment, they abstract from this issue.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, J, J6

• Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP

  Staff Working Paper 2011-11 Philipp Maier

  We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

• Inventories, Markups and Real Rigidities in Sticky Price Models of the Canadian Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2011-9 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Virgiliu Midrigan

  Recent New Keynesian models of macroeconomy view nominal cost rigidities, rather than nominal price rigidities, as the key feature that accounts for the observed persistence in output and inflation. Kryvtsov and Midrigan (2010a,b) reassess these conclusions by combining a theory based on nominal rigidities and storable goods with direct evidence on inventories for the U.S.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F1, F12

• Financial Spillovers Across Countries: The Case of Canada and the United States

  Staff Discussion Paper 2011-1 Kimberly Beaton, Brigitte Desroches

  The authors investigate financial spillovers across countries with an emphasis on the effect of shocks to financial conditions in the United States on financial conditions and economic activity in Canada. These questions are addressed within a global vector autoregression model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E32, F, F3, F36, F4, F40

• The Propagation of U.S. Shocks to Canada: Understanding the Role of Real-Financial Linkages

  Staff Working Paper 2010-40 Kimberly Beaton, René Lalonde, Stephen Snudden

  This paper examines the transmission of U.S. real and financial shocks to Canada and, in particular, the role of financial frictions in affecting the transmission of these shocks. These questions are addressed within the Bank of Canada's Global Economy Model (de Resende et al. forthcoming), a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking sector and a detailed role for financial frictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E27, E3, E32, F, F3, F36, F4, F40

• 'Lean' versus 'Rich' Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession

  Staff Working Paper 2010-37 Marco J. Lombardi, Philipp Maier

  We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data from national economies (pseudo-real time data).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

• Semi-Structural Models for Inflation Forecasting

  Staff Working Paper 2010-34 Maral Kichian, Rumler Fabio, Paul Corrigan

  We propose alternative single-equation semi-structural models for forecasting inflation in Canada, whereby structural New Keynesian models are combined with time-series features in the data. Several marginal cost measures are used, including one that in addition to unit labour cost also integrates relative price shocks known to play an important role in open-economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C53, E, E3, E31

• The Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in Bank Capital and Liquidity Requirements in Canada: Insights from the BoC-GEM-FIN

  Staff Discussion Paper 2010-16 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, Nikita Perevalov

  The authors use simulations within the BoC-GEM-FIN, the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model with financial frictions in both the demand and supply sides of the credit market, to investigate the macroeconomic implications of changing bank regulations on the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, G, G1, G2

• On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates from a Medium Scale DSGE Model

  Staff Working Paper 2010-30 Sarah Zubairy

  This paper contributes to the debate on fiscal multipliers, in the context of a structural model. I estimate a micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, that features a rich fiscal policy block and a transmission mechanism for government spending shocks, using Bayesian techniques for US data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E3, E32, E6, E62, H, H3, H30