E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Military Buildups in a New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework

  Staff Working Paper 2003-12 Alain Paquet, Louis Phaneuf, Nooman Rebei

  The authors study the macroeconomic consequences of large military buildups using a New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) approach that combines nominal rigidities within imperfectly competitive goods and labour markets. They show that the predictions of the NNS framework generally are consistent with the sign, timing, and magnitude of how hours worked, after-tax real wages, and output actually respond to an upsurge in military purchases.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, H, H2

• Bank Lending, Credit Shocks, and the Transmission of Canadian Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2003-9 Joseph Atta-Mensah, Ali Dib

  The authors use a dynamic general-equilibrium model to study the role financial frictions play as a transmission mechanism of Canadian monetary policy, and to evaluate the real effects of exogenous credit shocks. Financial frictions, which are modelled as spreads between deposit and loan interest rates, are assumed to depend on economic activity as well as on credit shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E5, E51

• Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2003-8 Andrew Rennison

  The author evaluates the ability of a variety of output-gap estimators to accurately measure the output gap in a model economy. A small estimated model of the Canadian economy is used to generate artificial data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, E, E3, E32

• Salaire réel, chocs technologiques et fluctuations économiques

  Staff Working Paper 2002-42 Dominique Tremblay

  The author presents empirical evidence that he has obtained from an analysis of the response of different economic variables, including the real wage rate, to a technology shock.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E24, E3, E32

• An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP

  Staff Working Paper 2002-36 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde

  The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. GDP.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E23, E3, E32

• Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy in Canada Since 1981

  Staff Working Paper 2002-25 Ali Dib

  This paper develops and estimates a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium model with price and wage stickiness to analyze monetary policy in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52

• Dollarization in Canada: The Buck Stops There

  Technical Report No. 90 John Murray, James Powell

  The sharp depreciation of the Canadian dollar and the successful launch of the euro have spawned an animated debate in Canada concerning the potential benefits of formally adopting the U.S. dollar as our national currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F3, F33, F36

• Estimated DGE Models and Forecasting Accuracy: A Preliminary Investigation with Canadian Data

  Staff Working Paper 2002-18 Kevin Moran, Veronika Dolar

  This paper applies the hybrid dynamic general-equilibrium, vector autoregressive (DGE-VAR) model developed by Ireland (1999) to Canadian time series.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37

• La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2002-10 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Simon van Norden

  In this paper, we measure, with Canadian data, the scope of the revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap generated with several univariate and multivariate techniques. We also make an empirical evaluation of the usefulness of the output gap estimates for predicting inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

• An Estimated Canadian DSGE Model with Nominal and Real Rigidities

  Staff Working Paper 2001-26 Ali Dib

  This paper develops a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium (DGSE) model for the Canadian economy and evaluates the real effects of monetary policy shocks. To generate high and persistent real effects, the model combines nominal frictions in the form of costly price adjustment with real rigidities modelled as convex costs of adjusting capital and employment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32