E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

• The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-3 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, James (Jim) C. MacGee, Luis Uzeda

  The rise in inflation in 2021–22 sparked a growing literature and debate over the causes of the surge as well as the near- and medium-term path for inflation. This review offers three key messages.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58

• Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective

  Staff Working Paper 2023-5 Paul Beaudry, Katya Kartashova, Césaire Meh

  Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62, G, G5, G51, H, H6

• Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real?

  Staff Working Paper 2022-52 Johan Brannlund, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Reinhard Ellwanger

  Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, Q, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43

• Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics

  Staff Working Paper 2022-50 Martin Harding, Jesper Lindé, Mathias Trabandt

  We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. Our model can generate more sizable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model when inflation is high.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, E32, E37, E4, E44, E5, E52

• Core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-17 Mikael Khan, Elyse Sullivan

  We assess the usefulness of various measures of core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that Cpi-trim and CPI-median provided the best signal of underlying inflation. The favourable performance of these measures stems from their lack of reliance on historical experience, an especially valuable feature in unprecedented times.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, E, E3, E31

• Examining recent revisions to CPI-common

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-15 Elyse Sullivan

  Unusually large revisions to CPI-common in recent months stem from increased common movements across consumer price index components amid broad inflationary pressures. With recent revisions, CPI-common is more closely aligned with the Bank of Canada’s other two preferred measures of core inflation. However, caution is necessary when interpreting real-time estimates of CPI-common in the current environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C18, E, E3, E31

• The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?

  Staff Working Paper 2022-41 Paul Beaudry, Thomas J. Carter, Amartya Lahiri

  When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65

• How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?

  Staff Working Paper 2022-34 Monica Jain, Olena Kostyshyna, Xu Zhang

  This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31

• Job Ladder and Business Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2022-14 Felipe Alves

  During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32

• Household Heterogeneity and the Performance of Monetary Policy Frameworks

  Staff Working Paper 2022-12 Edouard Djeutem, Mario He, Abeer Reza, Yang Zhang

  Consumption inequality and a low interest rate environment are two important trends in today’s economy. But the implications they may have—and how those implications interact—within different monetary policy frameworks are not well understood. We study the ranking of alternative frameworks that take these trends into account.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58