E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

• Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico

  Staff Working Paper 2003-17 Jeannine Bailliu, Daniel Garcés, Mark Kruger, Miguel Messmacher

  The authors apply existing inflation models that have worked well in industrialized countries to Mexico, an emerging market that has recently moved to adopt an inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy. They compare the performance of these models with a mark-up model that has been used extensively to analyze inflation in Mexico.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37

• Testing the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve Using Exact Methods

  Staff Working Paper 2003-7 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian

  Postulating two different specifications for the Canadian Phillips curve (a purely backwardlooking model, and a partly backward-, partly forward-looking model), the authors test for structural breaks in the parameters of the equation. In each case, they account for the possibilities that: (i) breaks can be discrete, or continuous, and (ii) available data samples may be too small to justify using asymptotically valid structural-change tests.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C5, C52, E, E3, E31, E37

• Inflation Changes, Yield Spreads, and Threshold Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2002-40 Greg Tkacz

  Using interest rate yield spreads to explain changes in inflation, we investigate whether such relationships can be modelled using two-regime threshold models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E3, E31

• An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Interrelationships Among Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Dispersion, and Output Growth

  Staff Working Paper 2002-39 Francis Vitek

  Within a unified framework, the author conducts an empirical investigation of dynamic interrelationships among inflation, inflation uncertainty, relative price dispersion, and output growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy in Canada Since 1981

  Staff Working Paper 2002-25 Ali Dib

  This paper develops and estimates a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium model with price and wage stickiness to analyze monetary policy in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52

• Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom

  Staff Working Paper 2002-19 Hashmat Khan, Zhenhua Zhu

  Mankiw and Reis (2001a) have proposed a "sticky-information"-based Phillips curve (SIPC) to address some of the concerns with the "sticky-price"-based new Keynesian Phillips curve.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• An Estimated Canadian DSGE Model with Nominal and Real Rigidities

  Staff Working Paper 2001-26 Ali Dib

  This paper develops a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium (DGSE) model for the Canadian economy and evaluates the real effects of monetary policy shocks. To generate high and persistent real effects, the model combines nominal frictions in the form of costly price adjustment with real rigidities modelled as convex costs of adjusting capital and employment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32

• New Phillips Curve with Alternative Marginal Cost Measures for Canada, the United States, and the Euro Area

  Staff Working Paper 2001-25 Edith Gagnon, Hashmat Khan

  Recent research on the new Phillips curve (NPC) (e.g., Galí, Gertler, and López-Salido 2001a) gives marginal cost an important role in capturing pressures on inflation. In this paper we assess the case for using alternative measures of marginal cost to improve the empirical fit of the NPC.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• On Inflation and the Persistence of Shocks to Output

  Staff Working Paper 2001-22 Maral Kichian, Richard Luger

  This paper empirically investigates the possibility that the effects of shocks to output depend on the level of inflation. The analysis extends Elwood's (1998) framework by incorporating in the model an inflation-threshold process that can potentially influence the stochastic properties of output.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, E58

• Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level

  Staff Working Paper 2001-16 Gerald Stuber

  This paper surveys recent developments in the theoretical and empirical literature on the economic implications of uncertainty about the longer-term outlook for inflation. In particular, the linkages between inflation, long-run inflation uncertainty, and aggregate economic activity in industrial economies have become considerably better understood during the past decade.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E31, E4, E44