E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

• Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain

  Staff Working Paper 2003-3 René Lalonde, Patrick Sabourin

  This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, F, F3, F31, F4, F47

• Evaluating the Quarterly Projection Model: A Preliminary Investigation

  Staff Working Paper 2002-20 Robert Amano, Kim McPhail, Hope Pioro, Andrew Rennison

  This paper summarizes the results of recent research evaluating the Bank of Canada's Quarterly Projection Model (QPM).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E1, E17, E3, E30, E37

• Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM

  Staff Working Paper 1997-16 Richard Black, David Rose

  This paper documents the structure and properties of the Canadian Policy Analysis Model (CPAM). CPAM is designed to provide a reasonably complete representation of the Canadian macro economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17

• The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 3. The Dynamic Model: QPM

  Technical Report No. 75 Donald Coletti, Benjamin Hunt, David Rose, Robert Tetlow

  The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model, QPM, combines the short-term dynamic properties necessary to support regular economic projections with the consistent behavioural structure necessary for policy analysis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17

• Responses of Various Econometric Models to Selected Policy Shocks

  Technical Report No. 38 Brian O'Reilly, Graydon Paulin, Philip Smith

  In July, 1982 a seminar was held in Ottawa to compare the responses of nine major econometric models to a previously specified set of shocks to the Canadian economy. At the seminar, which was sponsored by the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance, participants presented the results of their simulations and discussed the […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E1, E17